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Openai/6920370e-af50-8007-985e-1645172973a6
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==== 一、總體考量 ==== 在動用公投作為反制工具前,有幾點必須先確認、策略上要盤點好: # 法律/制度條件: - 公民投票法目前規定了提案、連署、公告、投票的流程、門檻、時間點等。法律白話文運動<ref>{{cite web|title=法律白話文運動|url=https://www.ly.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=33324&pid=184203|publisher=ly.gov.tw|access-date=2025-11-22}}</ref> - 最近國會已通過將「公投綁大選」的修正(即公投若在公告後 3-6 月內,有全國性選舉時應與該選舉同日舉行) 。中央社 CNA<ref>{{cite web|title=中央社 CNA|url=https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202511210177.aspx|publisher=中央社 CNA|access-date=2025-11-22}}</ref> - 當前國會多數掌握在藍白,且他們正快速通過修法、程序爭議多、被指破壞制衡。公視新聞網 PNN<ref>{{cite web|title=公視新聞網 PNN|url=https://news.pts.org.tw/article/696072|publisher=公視新聞網 PNN|access-date=2025-11-22}}</ref> 因此,公投若要有效反制,必須設計在上述制度條件下仍具操作空間。 # 政治/社會條件: - 民眾察覺「國會毀憲亂政」的意識要足夠,否則即便提案,動員連署、宣傳也難。 - 公投動員成本高(連署、宣講、辯論、公關、媒體),而且如果主題太抽象,容易被對手模糊化。 - 公投題目設計要易懂、具情感共鳴、能觸及「民主/憲政核心」而非只在技術修法細節上。 # 反制定位: - 公投不能只是「說反對」,而最好能提出「替代方案」或至少「界定紅線」:哪些是不能觸碰、社會要守護的憲政原則。 - 公投也可設為警示工具:即便通過後沒有立即法律效力,也可在政治上形成壓力、影響選民與輿論,逼迫國會/政府回頭。 # 策略時機: - 注意公布/連署/投票的時間點是否與國會預定動作重合。 - 若公投綁大選,需考量選舉節奏、選民動員、選舉議題混雜化的風險。
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