Openai/6943ef1c-da5c-8000-b9e5-a581407e95ea

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gpt-5-t-mini

User: How much Australia dollars to start and compete in elections for 30 years.

How much Australia dollars to start and compete in elections for 30 years. Give me the maximum amount covering all the expenses for 30 years.

Assistant: Nice question — I’ll give you a practical upper-bound maximum-plausible cost estimate in Australian dollars for startin…

Nice question — I’ll give you a practical upper-bound (maximum-plausible) cost estimate in Australian dollars for starting and competing in elections over 30 years, plus a clearer lower-scale scenario (if you’re an independent contesting one electorate). I’ll state my assumptions, show the math step-by-step, and cite the official sources I used.

- Maximum-plausible (large national party campaign scenario): ≈ AUD 1.27 billion over 30 years (rounded ~AUD 1.3 billion).

• Much smaller (single independent candidate, one electorate): ≈ AUD 14.8 million over 30 years.

Below is how I arrived at those numbers and the assumptions I used.

- AEC — historical costs of running federal elections and AEC program pages. Australian Electoral Commission

• Parliamentary/analysis reporting on election costs and campaign spending reform proposals (caps). Australian Parliament House
• News analysis on proposed caps and public funding changes. The Guardian

(If you want, I can show more granular sources — e.g., specific AEC pages for nomination/registration rules or the Government bill text.)

1. “Start and compete” = operate a serious nationwide political campaign / party that contests federal elections (House of Representatives) repeatedly across 30 years. This is the scenario that produces the maximum plausible legal spending.

1. Federal elections occur roughly every 3 years → 10 elections in 30 years (approximate).
2. I use the proposed/announced national campaign cap level used in recent reform proposals as a reasonable “maximum legal spending per federal campaign” for a major party: AUD 90,000,000 per federal election (national cap). (If future laws change caps up or down, the total scales directly.) Australian Parliament House
3. I add ongoing administrative/staffing costs in non-election years (head office, state offices, permanent staff, policy teams, legal/compliance, travel). For a major party I estimate AUD 10,000,000 per year outside the main election outlays (this is an estimate to reflect a full national operation; actual major party admin can vary).
4. Add smaller items: by-elections, legal/compliance, registration/startup, and a contingency buffer (5%) to cover inflation, unforeseen costs, and extra campaigning between elections.
5. For the independent / single electorate scenario I assume the per-electorate cap used in recent reform proposals ($800,000 per electorate campaign cap) and much smaller yearly admin. Australian Parliament House

1. Campaign spending (cap) per federal election: 90,000,000 AUD per election. Australian Parliament House

1. Number of federal elections in 30 years (approx): 30 years ÷ 3 years per election = 10 elections.
2. Total campaign spending across 30 years (caps applied each election): 90,000,000 × 10 = 900,000,000 AUD.
3. Ongoing annual administrative & permanent costs (non-election items): 10,000,000 AUD per year × 30 years = 300,000,000 AUD. (covers staff salaries, state offices, HQ, legal/compliance, research, travel, year-round advertising etc.)
4. By-elections, extra campaigns, legal, compliance, candidate support over 30 years (estimate): 10,000,000 AUD (lump sum estimate for smaller campaigns, special elections, major legal/compliance events).
5. Start-up / registration / one-off setup costs: 1,000,000 AUD (party registration compliance, initial staffing, IT, branding — conservative estimate).
6. Subtotal before contingency: 900,000,000 + 300,000,000 + 10,000,000 + 1,000,000 = 1,211,000,000 AUD
7. Contingency (5% for inflation / unknowns): 1,211,000,000 × 0.05 = 60,550,000 AUD
8. Grand total (maximum-plausible estimate): 1,211,000,000 + 60,550,000 = 1,271,550,000 AUD

Rounded for readability: ≈ AUD 1.27 billion (I’ll report this as ≈ AUD 1.3 billion to reflect uncertainty).

Why this is credible as a “maximum”: recent reform proposals have explicitly discussed national campaign spending caps of AUD 90 million (and per-electorate caps) — so a well-funded national party hitting the cap every election is a natural practical upper bound for legal campaign spending per election. Add long-term admin and contingency and you reach the figure above. Australian Parliament House

1. Per-electorate campaign cap (proposed): 800,000 AUD per electorate per campaign. Australian Parliament House

1. 10 elections → campaign total: 800,000 × 10 = 8,000,000 AUD.
2. Yearly admin / small office for candidate (estimate): 200,000 AUD/year × 30 = 6,000,000 AUD.
3. One-off startup: 100,000 AUD (local office setup, signs, basic legal).
4. Subtotal: 8,000,000 + 6,000,000 + 100,000 = 14,100,000 AUD.
5. Contingency 5%: 14,100,000 × 0.05 = 705,000 AUD.
6. Total (independent one-electorate): 14,100,000 + 705,000 = 14,805,000 AUD ≈ AUD 14.8 million.

This is a plausible upper-bound for an independent who spends up to the per-electorate cap every election and maintains a modest year-round operation.

- Law changes: campaign spending caps, donation caps, or public funding changes (several reforms were proposed in 2024–2025) would directly change the “maximum” legal spend per election. I used the recent reform figures as the cap reference. Australian Parliament House

• Type of contest: running for Senate vs House vs state elections changes costs. State campaigns and multi-state presence increase overall cost. My “maximum” focused on federal national campaigning (largest scale).
• Public funding / reimbursements: public funding reduces net private fundraising needs; but if you want the gross maximum expense (money spent), public funding increases the money circulating in campaigns (because reimbursements offset private costs). AEC publishes election funding rules and payments. Australian Electoral Commission
• Inflation & media costs: digital advertising, TV, and large-scale media buying could push actual costs above caps (if caps are removed). Historical AEC figures show federal election administration costs (the cost to run the election itself) and large campaign spend in recent cycles. Australian Parliament House

If you want a more precise estimate for your plan, tell me:

• Are you imagining starting a new national party or running as an independent / small party?
• Do you plan to contest federal elections only, or state elections too? Which state(s)?
• Do you want gross money spent (total campaign budget) or net cost to you after public funding / reimbursements / donations?

If you don’t tell me, I’ll assume the national-party scenario above (that produced the AUD 1.27B estimate).

Would you like the same estimate converted to yearly averages (per year), or a version that includes state elections too?

gpt-5-2

User: Now show me a table with costs split as three decades, Five years, one year.

Now show me a table with costs split as three decades, Five years, one year.

Assistant: Below is a clear, structured cost table using the maximum-plausible national-party scenario we already calculated:

Below is a clear, structured cost table using the maximum-plausible national-party scenario we already calculated:

Total over 30 years ≈ AUD 1.27 billion

I’ve split it into:

• Three decades (10 years each)
• Five-year blocks
• One-year average

These are averages. Real spending spikes in election years and is lower in non-election years.

📊 Cost Breakdown Table (Maximum Scenario)

🟦 Summary Assumptions

• 30 years ≈ 10 federal elections
• Campaign cap hit every election
• Full national party operation
• Includes admin, staff, compliance, media, travel, contingency

🟩 Table: Costs by Time Period (AUD)

| Time Period | Elections Covered | Estimated Cost (AUD) | | ----------------- | ----------------- | -------------------- | | 30 Years (Total) | ~10 elections | 1,270,000,000 | | 1 Decade (10 yrs) | ~3–4 elections | 423,000,000 | | 5 Years | ~1–2 elections | 212,000,000 | | 1 Year (Average) | — | 42,300,000 |

🧮 How these numbers break down internally (per year average)

| Cost Type | Avg per Year (AUD) | | ------------------------------- | ------------------ | | Election campaigning (averaged) | 30,000,000 | | Permanent staff & offices | 10,000,000 | | Legal, compliance, IT, research | 1,500,000 | | Travel, events, contingencies | 800,000 | | Total per year | ≈ 42.3 million |

⚠️ Important Reality Check

• Election years can easily exceed AUD 90–100 million
• Non-election years may drop to AUD 15–20 million
• This table smooths costs to show long-term financial commitment

🔍 If you want next

I can:

• Show the same table for an independent candidate
• Split election year vs non-election year
• Convert this to USD / INR
• Add state elections and show how totals explode further

Just tell me which one.