Top AI model on December 31

The year 2024 has been a whirlwind of advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), with new models and capabilities emerging at a breakneck pace. As we approach the end of the year, the question on everyone's mind is: which AI model reigns supreme on December 31st, 2024?

To answer this question, we'll delve into the current AI landscape, examining the top contenders and the major developments that have shaped the field throughout the year. This will include an analysis of the models' capabilities and performance across various tasks. We'll also explore expert opinions and predictions about the future of AI in 2025.

Deep Dive into OpenAI's o3 Model

OpenAI's o3 model is generating significant buzz due to its advanced reasoning capabilities. Announced on December 20th, 2024, during the "12 Days of OpenAI" event¹ it is designed to excel in tasks that require step-by-step logical processes, such as advanced coding challenges, intricate mathematical problems, and science-related queries².

Here's a closer look at o3's key features and capabilities:

• Enhanced Reasoning: o3 demonstrates superior logical reasoning skills, enabling it to solve complex, multi-step problems with greater accuracy². It significantly outperformed its predecessor, o1, on the ARC-AGI-1 benchmark, a test designed to assess general intelligence capabilities. While o1 achieved a high score of 32%, o3 jumped to an impressive 88%³.
• Improved Performance: Benchmarks indicate that o3 outperforms its predecessor, o1, in areas such as advanced mathematics, coding, and scientific reasoning².
• Step-by-Step Processing: Designed to handle tasks that require sequential logic, o3 can break down problems into smaller, manageable steps, ensuring more reliable results².
• Problem-Solving Autonomy: o3 is designed to solve novel problems without requiring prior training, a hallmark of artificial general intelligence (AGI)⁴.
• Resource Efficiency: o3 achieves human-level intelligence with less computational power, making it more accessible and sustainable⁴.

OpenAI also introduced o3-mini, a lighter version of o3 designed for users who need robust AI with less computational overhead⁴. o3-mini features adaptive thinking time, allowing users to adjust the model's reasoning effort based on the complexity of the task⁵. For simpler problems, users can opt for low-effort reasoning to maximize speed and efficiency, while for complex tasks, they can utilize high-effort reasoning for increased accuracy⁵.

Top Contenders for the AI Crown

While definitive rankings are elusive this close to the year's end, several AI models have consistently demonstrated exceptional performance and garnered significant attention. These include OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's Gemini, and Microsoft's Copilot. It's worth noting that the AI landscape is dynamic, with new contenders constantly emerging⁶.

As of December 18th, 2024, some sources suggest that the top models are Claude 3.5, ChatGPT o1, and Gemini 2⁷. However, other reports indicate that ChatGPT leads the pack with a 59.4% market share, although its growth has slowed to 6% quarter-over-quarter⁸. Google's Gemini and Microsoft's Copilot are close behind, with Gemini exhibiting a 9% quarterly user growth and Copilot at 7%⁸.

With the upcoming release of OpenAI's o3 and o3-mini, the competition is likely to intensify⁹. These new models reportedly outperform existing AI models in various tasks and are expected to roll out in the next few months⁹.

Major Developments in AI Throughout 2024

Several key developments have shaped the AI landscape in 2024. These advancements are not only improving the capabilities of AI models but also influencing how they are being used and integrated into various sectors.

Model Development and Optimization

• Transfer Learning: This technique leverages pre-existing models as a starting point for new tasks, reducing the time and data required to develop accurate models¹⁰.
• Model Optimization: Techniques like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and quantization are making model optimization more accessible⁶. LoRA freezes pre-trained model weights and injects trainable layers, while quantization reduces the precision used to represent model data points⁶. These advancements improve efficiency and reduce computational costs.

AI Applications in Specific Industries

• Vertical AI Integration: AI models are increasingly being tailored for specific sectors like healthcare, finance, and manufacturing¹⁰. This trend allows for more accurate and efficient solutions within those industries. For example, in the healthcare industry, generative AI is helping to enhance access to care, detect diseases, and assist with product development¹¹. Image-based AI models are being utilized as diagnostic tools that can speed up interpretation, leading to earlier disease detection¹¹.
• AI Agent Assistants in Contact Centers: AI is supporting virtual agents by analyzing customer sentiment and providing recommended responses, leading to improved customer service¹¹. AI can also take on some of the more tedious tasks agents typically perform, such as summarizing and tagging conversations for historical reference¹¹.

Legal and Ethical Considerations in AI Development

As AI continues to evolve, legal and ethical considerations are becoming increasingly important. The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), for instance, has issued guidance on AI inventorship, stating that generative AI cannot be an inventor nor named as a joint inventor¹². However, the guidance also clarifies that AI-assisted inventions are not categorically unpatentable¹². The focus will be on whether a human inventor provided a "significant" contribution to the invention¹². This highlights the evolving legal landscape surrounding AI and its implications for future development.

New AI Models Released or Announced on December 31st, 2024

While OpenAI's o3 and o3-mini models are expected to be released soon, there is no information available about any new AI models specifically released or announced on December 31st, 2024¹³.

Expert Opinions and Predictions for AI in 2025

Experts predict continued exponential growth for AI in 2025¹⁵. AI budgets for enterprise companies are expected to increase significantly¹⁶. This growth will be driven by advancements in AI capabilities and a wider adoption of AI solutions across various industries.

Here are some key predictions for AI in 2025:

• Increased AI Agent Capabilities: AI agents will power more complex real-world systems, automating tasks, monitoring processes, and making decisions¹⁷. Gartner predicts that by 2028, AI agents will perform at least 15 percent of everyday work decisions¹⁷. This raises important questions about the need for AI oversight and accountability to ensure responsible use and mitigate potential risks.
• Human-AI Collaboration: AI will augment human abilities, freeing up time for creative and interpersonal tasks¹⁷. This collaboration will allow humans to focus on tasks that require critical thinking, creativity, and emotional intelligence, while AI handles complex calculations, data processing, and idea generation.
• Rise of Smaller Language Models: Smaller, specialized language models will gain traction due to their lower data requirements and training costs¹⁸. This will make AI more accessible to startups and smaller businesses, fostering innovation and wider adoption.
• More Human-like AI: AI will become more emotionally responsive, creative, and diverse, with improved image and video outputs and more natural conversational abilities¹⁹. This shift from turn-based interactions to more fluid and natural conversations will enhance user experience and make AI more engaging.
• Transformative Impact on Industries: AI is predicted to transform industry-level competitive landscapes²⁰. Companies that effectively leverage AI will gain a significant advantage, while those that lag behind may struggle to compete.
• Focus on AI Safety: The establishment of the International Network of AI Safety Institutes highlights the growing emphasis on AI safety and its relevance to the future of AI models²¹.
• Government Involvement in AI: The Biden-Harris administration's first-ever National Security Memorandum on AI directs the government to ensure that the U.S. leads in the development of safe, secure, and trustworthy AI²¹. This reflects the government's focus on AI's role in national security and its implications for future AI development.

A discussion thread about an AI model leaderboard, primarily focusing on the competition between Google's Gemini and OpenAI's ChatGPT

This image contains a discussion thread about an AI model leaderboard, primarily focusing on the competition between Google's Gemini and OpenAI's ChatGPT (especially the new 4o version). The conversation spans roughly a week and involves numerous users sharing their opinions, observations, and predictions.

Here's a breakdown of the key points:

• Main Focus: Gemini vs. ChatGPT: The central theme is the ongoing battle for the top spot on the leaderboard between Gemini and ChatGPT. Many users believe they are currently neck and neck or very close.
• Positive and Negative Views on Gemini: Some users are impressed with Gemini's performance, especially in certain areas like reasoning and on platforms like Imarena. They see it as a potentially underestimated "thinking" model. However, others are critical, calling it "bad" or "overrated," and express concerns about its training data. There's even a comment about the Gemini logo being incorrect.
• Expectations for ChatGPT (and 4o): ChatGPT is still considered a strong contender, particularly with the release of its new 4o version. Users are anticipating further updates and are discussing its strengths, sometimes noting it excels in conversation even if it lags in certain logic tasks compared to Gemini. Some believe ChatGPT is currently undervalued.
• Discussion of Other Models: Besides Gemini and ChatGPT, other models are mentioned, including:
  • Claude: Seen as a strong competitor by some.
  • Grok: There's curiosity about Grok 3, but also dismissive comments.
  • O1: Considered an up-and-coming model with good reasoning abilities, potentially challenging the leaders. The "o1-preview" version is even suggested as being better than ChatGPT 4o in some aspects.
  • Opus: Speculation exists about a potential future release from Google.
  • Anonymous Chatbot: Some believe an anonymous chatbot might win.
• Leaderboard Mechanics and Rules: Users discuss how the leaderboard works, including the tie-breaking rule (alphabetical order of model names). The Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard is mentioned as the data source. There are questions about the frequency of updates and concerns about potential manipulation by "whales" (users with significant voting power).
• Market Implications: There's a brief mention of the market share and growth of different AI chatbots.
• Key Dates: December 31st is highlighted as a potentially significant date related to the leaderboard results.
• User Sentiment: The overall tone of the thread is active and engaged, with users passionately sharing their opinions and predictions. There's a mix of excitement about new models and updates, as well as skepticism and disagreement regarding the performance of specific models, particularly Gemini.

In summary, the discussion thread provides a snapshot of the dynamic and competitive landscape of AI models, with a strong focus on the ongoing rivalry between Gemini and ChatGPT and the anticipation surrounding future releases and leaderboard updates.²²

Conclusion

While the AI landscape is constantly evolving, it's challenging to definitively crown one AI model as supreme on December 31st, 2024. However, based on current information and expert opinions, OpenAI's o3 appears to be a strong contender. Its advanced reasoning capabilities, improved performance, and potential for AGI position it as a potential frontrunner.

Other strong contenders include ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot, each with its own strengths and areas of expertise. Ultimately, the "top" AI model may depend on the specific criteria used for evaluation, such as performance on benchmarks, real-world applications, and user experience.

Furthermore, the "arena score" used by platforms like Polymarket to rank AI models considers various factors, including user votes and performance on specific tasks⁸. In case of ties, the model whose name comes first in alphabetical order is ranked higher⁸.

The major developments in AI throughout 2024, such as vertical AI integration, transfer learning, and model optimization, have paved the way for more powerful and efficient AI solutions. These advancements, coupled with the predictions of continued growth and innovation in 2025, paint an exciting picture for the future of AI.

As we move into the new year, it will be fascinating to witness how these AI models continue to evolve and shape the world around us. The race for AI dominance is far from over, and the coming year promises even more exciting advancements and breakthroughs.

Works cited

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17. AI in 2025: Key Trends and Predictions | SCRUMLAUNCH, accessed on December 25, 2024, https://www.scrumlaunch.com/blog/ai-trends-and-predictions-2025

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