Openai/6961a2cb-8de8-8010-8e27-911459960dae

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This conversation was exported from ChatGPT[1]

gpt-5-2 edit

User: what should be wnba players be paid if they recieved the same percentage as nba players what would be a good estimat e edit

what should be wnba players be paid if they recieved the same percentage as nba players what would be a good estimat e

Assistant: Here’s a simple estimate of what WNBA players would be paid if they got the same percentage of league revenue that NBA … edit

Here’s a simple estimate of what WNBA players would be paid if they got the same percentage of league revenue that NBA players do — instead of the much smaller share they currently receive:

- NBA players receive about 49–51% of basketball-related league revenue. Yahoo Sports[2] edit
  • WNBA players currently get about 9–10% of total league revenue under the existing CBA — a tiny slice compared to the NBA. X (formerly Twitter)[3]
  • WNBA total revenue is estimated at roughly $180–$200 million per year (including media rights, ticket sales, merchandise, etc.). X (formerly Twitter)[4]
  • Current average WNBA salary is roughly $120,000–$150,000 and maximum around $250,000. Yahoo Sports[5]
Let’s assume the WNBA earns $200 million/year, and players receive 50% of that revenue — the same share NBA players get: edit

Total player pool under 50% share: 🏀 $200 million × 50% = $100 million available for player salaries.

There are 144 active roster spots in the WNBA (12 teams × 12 players).

Average salary under this model: 💡 $100 million ÷ 144 ≈ $694,000 per player per year

Compare that to current numbers:

  • Current average: ~$120K–$150K
  • Hypothetical average: ~$694K ➡️ That’s roughly 4-6× higher than current averages if revenues stay the same and players get the NBA-style share. X (formerly Twitter)[6]

Top-end/Maximum salaries: If teams structured salaries with tiering (like the NBA does), top stars could be in the $1–2M range or higher, rather than ~$250K now. This tracks with players’ own revenue-share demands in negotiations. Reuters[7]

Right now, the WNBA’s small revenue share is the biggest driver of the pay gap — not revenue alone. Even though the league earns much less total revenue than the NBA (NBA is around $11+ billion vs. WNBA ~$200M), giving players the same percentage (~50%) would significantly raise salaries. The Red Line Project[8] edit
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If you want, I can also break this down by rookie vs. star earning tiers or show what a salary scale might look like for starting players, mids, and superstars under the 50% revenue-share scenario.

User: what would the number 1 wnba pick get vs what would a udfa get edit

what would the number 1 wnba pick get vs what would a udfa get

Assistant: Here is a clear, realistic estimate of what the 1 WNBA draft pick and a UDFA undrafted free agent would get if the WNBA… edit

Here is a clear, realistic estimate of what the #1 WNBA draft pick and a UDFA (undrafted free agent) would get if the WNBA paid players the same percentage of revenue as the NBA.

If WNBA players received 50% of league revenue (same as NBA players): edit

  • Estimated WNBA revenue: $200 million
  • Players’ share at 50%: $100 million
  • 144 roster spots

Average salary ≈ $694,000 per player

But like the NBA, salaries would be tiered. Rookies would not earn the average — they’d have a scale.

In the NBA: edit

  • #1 overall pick makes about 150% of the rookie scale slot.
  • UDFA earns the minimum salary, usually a 1–2 year non-guaranteed deal.

Apply that same logic to WNBA numbers.

Using NBA-style tiering: edit

- Would likely earn between 1.5× and 2× the average rookie salary. edit
  • Estimated rookie pool might be around 20% of total player salaries.
  • If rookies average ~$500K, the #1 pick would earn:
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Using NBA logic:

  • UDFAs get non-guaranteed minimum deals
  • Typically 50–60% of the rookie scale minimum

So:

# edit

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If the WNBA operated under the same revenue-share rules as the NBA: edit

  • The #1 pick would be close to a $1M player.
  • A UDFA would still make good money (~$350K+), not barely above minimum.
  • Salary structure would reflect actual market value rather than artificially suppressed caps.

If you want, I can also build:

### edit
Just tell me what format you want. edit

User: Yes do them all and feel free to use any format ill adjust . edit

Yes do them all and feel free to use any format ill adjust . Just give me the information

Assistant: Perfect — here is everything laid out cleanly: edit

Perfect — here is everything laid out cleanly: ✔️ Full hypothetical WNBA rookie scale (picks 1–36) ✔️ UDFA estimates ✔️ Hypothetical salary cap + max contract structure ✔️ Comparison to current WNBA numbers

All based on the model where WNBA players receive 50% of league revenue, just like the NBA.

To keep numbers consistent: edit

  • Estimated league revenue: $200,000,000
  • Player share at 50% = $100,000,000
  • 144 roster spots → Average salary ≈ $694,000
  • Rookie scale pool = 20% of total salaries = $20M
  • 36 drafted rookies → average rookie salary ≈ $555K

The #1 pick would be higher than the average rookie, the late 2nd-round pick lower.

(Assumes a 2-year guaranteed base with team options for years 3–4, same as NBA structure.) edit

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In the NBA, UDFAs often sign near the minimum or accept two-way deals. edit

Using that structure:

- Base: $300,000–$350,000 edit
  • Year 2 non-guaranteed
  • Incentives for games played / making roster
- $200,000 base salary edit
  • Up to $350,000 with active roster days

To maintain NBA-like balance: edit

- Total cap pool: $100,000,000 edit
  • 12 teams
  • → Team salary cap ~ $8.3 million per team
- Salary cap: $8.3M edit
  • Luxury tax line: $9.0M
  • Hard cap: $10.0M

Based on NBA percentages: edit

  • Max Contract Tier 1 (7+ years) → 35% of cap = $2.9M
  • Max Contract Tier 2 (4–6 years) → 30% of cap = $2.5M
  • Max Contract Tier 3 (0–3 years) → 25% of cap = $2.1M

This matches the NBA structure almost perfectly.

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If the WNBA paid players the same revenue percentage as the NBA: edit

#1 pick earns almost $1M yearly — instead of $75K. edit
$300K+ instead of borderline-minimum deals. edit
Teams manage legitimate roster building, free agency, trades, extensions, luxury tax. edit
$2M+ contracts end need for overseas "second job" for top players. edit

If you want, I can also make:

### edit
### edit

Just tell me which one you want next.

User: So what would a potential a'ja wilson deal look like edit

So what would a potential a'ja wilson deal look like

Assistant: Here’s a clean, realistic hypothetical contract for A’ja Wilson if the WNBA paid players using NBA-style revenue share … edit

Here’s a clean, realistic hypothetical contract for A’ja Wilson if the WNBA paid players using NBA-style revenue share rules (50% of league revenue + $8.3M team cap).

We’ll model it using the NBA “supermax” structure, which applies to:

  • former MVP ✔️
  • former DPOY ✔️
  • Finals MVP ✔️
  • All-WNBA 1st team ✔️
  • Franchise cornerstone ✔️

A’ja checks every box, so she qualifies for the Tier 1 Max (35% of team cap).

🔥 A’JA WILSON — HYPOTHETICAL SUPERMAX CONTRACT edit

Using:

  • Team salary cap: $8.3 million
  • Tier 1 max = 35% of cap
  • Yearly raises = 8% (NBA standard for staying with your current team)
Year-by-Year Breakdown edit

| Year | Base Salary (35% of Cap w/ raises) | | ---------------------- | ---------------------------------- | | Year 1 | $2,905,000 | | Year 2 | $3,137,000 | | Year 3 | $3,388,000 | | Year 4 | $3,659,000 | | Year 5 (player option) | $3,952,000 |

🧮 Total Contract Value edit

👉 5 years, $17,041,000 edit

This would be the largest contract in the WNBA under a revenue-sharing model.

⭐ WHY THIS WORKS FOR A’JA edit

This type of deal reflects:

✔️ MVP production edit

A’ja is clearly the best player in the league.

✔️ “Face of the league” status edit

Star players in NBA get supermax deals to keep them with the franchise.

✔️ Longevity + awards edit

Her résumé is comparable to NBA supermax qualifiers.

✔️ Franchise loyalty edit

Teams can offer higher raises and more years to keep their stars.

✔️ Performance bonuses edit

A’ja would easily qualify for incentives (see below).

💰 Potential Bonuses (Modeled After NBA Incentives) edit

These would stack on top of the base salary:

| Incentive | Amount | | ---------------------- | --------- | | MVP | +$250,000 | | DPOY | +$150,000 | | Finals MVP | +$150,000 | | All-WNBA First Team | +$100,000 | | Team makes WNBA Finals | +$200,000 | | Team wins title | +$250,000 |

If A’ja has a dominant year, she could easily earn:

⭐ $3.5M–$4.0M in a single season edit

📌 OPTIONAL EXTENSION (If signed early) edit

If Vegas extends her early, NBA rules allow a “supermax extension” at 140% of last salary.

For A’ja that would look like:

  • 4 years, ~$16M (after her current deal ends)

📊 COMPARED TO HER CURRENT WNBA DEAL edit

| Contract Type | Annual Salary | | ---------------------------- | ------------------ | | Current real WNBA salary | ~$232,000 | | Hypothetical supermax salary | $2.9M–$4M per year |

She is currently making less than 10% of what she would under a revenue-share system.

🧨 WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE LEAGUE edit

If WNBA revenue distribution was NBA-style:

  • A’ja becomes a $3M–$4M per year player
  • Top stars like Stewart, Griner, Ionescu, Clark, Reese, Boston earn similar tiered max deals
  • Roster players and UDFAs earn $300K–$700K
  • Overseas play becomes optional instead of mandatory

It completely changes the economics of women’s basketball.

If you want, I can also build:

🔹 A hypothetical Las Vegas Aces full roster + cap sheet edit
🔹 Extensions for other stars (Clark, Ionescu, Boston, Stewie) edit
🔹 What the entire WNBA would look like with supermax contracts edit

Just tell me who you want next.

References edit

  1. "WNBA Pay Estimate". ChatGPT. Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  2. "Yahoo Sports". Yahoo Sports. Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  3. "X (formerly Twitter)". X (formerly Twitter). Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  4. "X (formerly Twitter)". X (formerly Twitter). Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  5. "Yahoo Sports". Yahoo Sports. Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  6. "X (formerly Twitter)". X (formerly Twitter). Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  7. "Reuters". reuters.com. Retrieved 2026-01-10.
  8. "The Red Line Project". The Red Line Project. 2025-11-04. Retrieved 2026-01-10.