Openai/69177fbb-14c4-800f-bc57-ccb5a1d88c95: Difference between revisions

by freem.ai...
 
by freem.ai...
 
Line 2: Line 2:
{{DISPLAYTITLE:RDOS Asperger Neanderthal theory}}
{{DISPLAYTITLE:RDOS Asperger Neanderthal theory}}


''This conversation was exported from ChatGPT''<ref>{{cite web|title=RDOS Asperger Neanderthal theory|url=https://chatgpt.com/share/69177fbb-14c4-800f-bc57-ccb5a1d88c95|publisher=ChatGPT|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
''This conversation was exported from ChatGPT''<ref>{{cite web|title=RDOS Asperger Neanderthal theory|url=https://chatgpt.com/share/69177fbb-14c4-800f-bc57-ccb5a1d88c95|publisher=ChatGPT|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


== gpt-5-1 ==
== gpt-5-1 ==
Line 533: Line 533:
Good question. Here’s a summary (with caveats) of what archaeologists reasonably infer about Neanderthal behavior — plus the major points of uncertainty. This will ground our myth-making discussion in real evidence.
Good question. Here’s a summary (with caveats) of what archaeologists reasonably infer about Neanderthal behavior — plus the major points of uncertainty. This will ground our myth-making discussion in real evidence.


==== 1. Tool Use & Technological Skill - Neanderthals made sophisticated stone tools (Mousterian technology) using prepared-core techniques, which implies advanced planning and manual skill. Fiveable<ref>{{cite web|title=Fiveable|url=https://fiveable.me/world-prehistory/unit-4/neanderthal-anatomy-behavior-culture/study-guide/pLy1gwcNy6bMR1wp|publisher=fiveable.me|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - They also used different raw materials (flint, bone, etc.) and may have hafted tools (attaching stone to handles). Biology Insights<ref>{{cite web|title=Biology Insights|url=https://biologyinsights.com/neanderthal-behavior-more-human-than-you-think/|publisher=Biology Insights|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Evidence suggests they produced adhesives such as birch tar, indicating complex cognition. Smithsonian Magazine<ref>{{cite web|title=Smithsonian Magazine|url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/eagle-talon-jewelry-suggests-neanderthals-were-capable-human-thought-180973451/|publisher=Smithsonian Magazine|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ====
==== 1. Tool Use & Technological Skill - Neanderthals made sophisticated stone tools (Mousterian technology) using prepared-core techniques, which implies advanced planning and manual skill. Fiveable<ref>{{cite web|title=Fiveable|url=https://fiveable.me/world-prehistory/unit-4/neanderthal-anatomy-behavior-culture/study-guide/pLy1gwcNy6bMR1wp|publisher=fiveable.me|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - They also used different raw materials (flint, bone, etc.) and may have hafted tools (attaching stone to handles). Biology Insights<ref>{{cite web|title=Biology Insights|url=https://biologyinsights.com/neanderthal-behavior-more-human-than-you-think/|publisher=Biology Insights|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Evidence suggests they produced adhesives such as birch tar, indicating complex cognition. Smithsonian Magazine<ref>{{cite web|title=Smithsonian Magazine|url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/eagle-talon-jewelry-suggests-neanderthals-were-capable-human-thought-180973451/|publisher=Smithsonian Magazine|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ====
# Use of Fire and Spatial Organization - Hearths have been found in camps, often associated with organized living areas. Encyclopedia Britannica<ref>{{cite web|title=Encyclopedia Britannica|url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/Neanderthal/Neanderthal-culture|publisher=Encyclopedia Britannica|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Some sites suggest seasonal or repeated occupation, not just transient hunting camps. Encyclopedia Britannica<ref>{{cite web|title=Encyclopedia Britannica|url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/Neanderthal/Neanderthal-culture|publisher=Encyclopedia Britannica|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
# Use of Fire and Spatial Organization - Hearths have been found in camps, often associated with organized living areas. Encyclopedia Britannica<ref>{{cite web|title=Encyclopedia Britannica|url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/Neanderthal/Neanderthal-culture|publisher=Encyclopedia Britannica|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Some sites suggest seasonal or repeated occupation, not just transient hunting camps. Encyclopedia Britannica<ref>{{cite web|title=Encyclopedia Britannica|url=https://www.britannica.com/topic/Neanderthal/Neanderthal-culture|publisher=Encyclopedia Britannica|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
# Burial Practices - There is good evidence that Neanderthals intentionally buried their dead. National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131216-la-chapelle-neanderthal-burials-graves|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - At some sites, burials show signs of deliberate pit digging, and the bodies are placed in non-random positions. National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131216-la-chapelle-neanderthal-burials-graves|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - There is some suggestion of symbolic behavior in burials: for instance, at Shanidar in Iraq, pollen was found in graves (though interpretations are debated). opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Grave goods or modified objects have sometimes been found near burials (e.g., stone tools, possible “resting stones” near skulls). National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/burial-neanderthals-humans-territory|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
# Burial Practices - There is good evidence that Neanderthals intentionally buried their dead. National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131216-la-chapelle-neanderthal-burials-graves|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - At some sites, burials show signs of deliberate pit digging, and the bodies are placed in non-random positions. National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131216-la-chapelle-neanderthal-burials-graves|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - There is some suggestion of symbolic behavior in burials: for instance, at Shanidar in Iraq, pollen was found in graves (though interpretations are debated). opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Grave goods or modified objects have sometimes been found near burials (e.g., stone tools, possible “resting stones” near skulls). National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/burial-neanderthals-humans-territory|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
# Symbolic Behavior / Ornamentation - Pigments (ochre, manganese) appear in many Neanderthal sites, which could indicate body-painting, symbolic marking, or technical uses (e.g., adhesive). opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Some personal ornaments: Neanderthals used eagle talons, perhaps as jewelry, at multiple sites. Smithsonian Magazine<ref>{{cite web|title=Smithsonian Magazine|url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/eagle-talon-jewelry-suggests-neanderthals-were-capable-human-thought-180973451/|publisher=Smithsonian Magazine|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Caves: in Bruniquel Cave (France), Neanderthals built ring-like structures from stalagmites deep in the cave, suggesting planned construction and use of fire for lighting. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Musical behavior: there is a disputed “flute” (a bone with holes) found in Divje Babe cave that might represent symbolic or musical instrument use. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divje_Babe_flute|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
# Symbolic Behavior / Ornamentation - Pigments (ochre, manganese) appear in many Neanderthal sites, which could indicate body-painting, symbolic marking, or technical uses (e.g., adhesive). opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Some personal ornaments: Neanderthals used eagle talons, perhaps as jewelry, at multiple sites. Smithsonian Magazine<ref>{{cite web|title=Smithsonian Magazine|url=https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/eagle-talon-jewelry-suggests-neanderthals-were-capable-human-thought-180973451/|publisher=Smithsonian Magazine|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Caves: in Bruniquel Cave (France), Neanderthals built ring-like structures from stalagmites deep in the cave, suggesting planned construction and use of fire for lighting. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Musical behavior: there is a disputed “flute” (a bone with holes) found in Divje Babe cave that might represent symbolic or musical instrument use. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divje_Babe_flute|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
# Social Structures and Care - Fossils show Neanderthals with serious injuries who survived for extended periods, implying that others cared for them. National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131216-la-chapelle-neanderthal-burials-graves|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - The presence of deep social bonds is supported by burial practices and group living. Anthroholic<ref>{{cite web|title=Anthroholic|url=https://anthroholic.com/neanderthals-homo-neandertalensis|publisher=anthroholic.com|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Some evidence suggests cultural exchange with Homo sapiens: a recent study (Tinshemet Cave) argues for shared burial customs and symbolic use of ochre across species. Phys.org<ref>{{cite web|title=Phys.org|url=https://phys.org/news/2025-03-burials-compelling-evidence-neanderthal-homo.pdf|publisher=phys.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
# Social Structures and Care - Fossils show Neanderthals with serious injuries who survived for extended periods, implying that others cared for them. National Geographic<ref>{{cite web|title=National Geographic|url=https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/131216-la-chapelle-neanderthal-burials-graves|publisher=National Geographic|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - The presence of deep social bonds is supported by burial practices and group living. Anthroholic<ref>{{cite web|title=Anthroholic|url=https://anthroholic.com/neanderthals-homo-neandertalensis|publisher=anthroholic.com|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Some evidence suggests cultural exchange with Homo sapiens: a recent study (Tinshemet Cave) argues for shared burial customs and symbolic use of ochre across species. Phys.org<ref>{{cite web|title=Phys.org|url=https://phys.org/news/2025-03-burials-compelling-evidence-neanderthal-homo.pdf|publisher=phys.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
# Cognitive Capacity - Because of their tool complexity, use of adhesives, and spatial planning, Neanderthals likely had fairly high working memory, planning capabilities, and executive function. arXiv<ref>{{cite web|title=arXiv|url=https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.09751|publisher=arxiv.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> - Their ability to use pigments, ornaments, and possibly symbolic items suggests some capacity for symbolic thought, though it’s less “rich” than that of later Homo sapiens. opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
# Cognitive Capacity - Because of their tool complexity, use of adhesives, and spatial planning, Neanderthals likely had fairly high working memory, planning capabilities, and executive function. arXiv<ref>{{cite web|title=arXiv|url=https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.09751|publisher=arxiv.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> - Their ability to use pigments, ornaments, and possibly symbolic items suggests some capacity for symbolic thought, though it’s less “rich” than that of later Homo sapiens. opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


==== - Symbolic Meaning vs. Practical Use: Pigment use could be functional (hide processing, insect repellent, adhesives) rather than symbolic. opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ====
==== - Symbolic Meaning vs. Practical Use: Pigment use could be functional (hide processing, insect repellent, adhesives) rather than symbolic. opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ====
* Burial Interpretation: While burials are well-attested, whether they reflect religion or symbolic belief systems is ambiguous. Some grave goods are disputed; the “flower burial” idea (Shanidar) has been challenged. opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Burial Interpretation: While burials are well-attested, whether they reflect religion or symbolic belief systems is ambiguous. Some grave goods are disputed; the “flower burial” idea (Shanidar) has been challenged. opentextbooks.concordia.ca<ref>{{cite web|title=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|url=https://opentextbooks.concordia.ca/explorationsversiontwo/chapter/11/|publisher=opentextbooks.concordia.ca|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Scale of Social Complexity: The Bruniquel cave structures show spatial planning and construction, but we don’t know if they had broad symbolic or ritual significance. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Scale of Social Complexity: The Bruniquel cave structures show spatial planning and construction, but we don’t know if they had broad symbolic or ritual significance. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruniquel_Cave|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Music Claim Disputed: The Divje Babe “flute” is controversial; some argue the holes could be from animal chewing rather than deliberate instrument-making. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divje_Babe_flute|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Music Claim Disputed: The Divje Babe “flute” is controversial; some argue the holes could be from animal chewing rather than deliberate instrument-making. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divje_Babe_flute|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Ornament Dating and Association: Some sites (like Grotte du Renne) that show personal ornaments may be stratigraphically mixed or misattributed. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grotte_du_Renne|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Ornament Dating and Association: Some sites (like Grotte du Renne) that show personal ornaments may be stratigraphically mixed or misattributed. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grotte_du_Renne|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Inter-Species Cultural Influence: Evidence for cultural exchange with Homo sapiens (e.g., burial similarities) is recent and under review; it’s hard to distinguish independent development vs borrowing. Phys.org<ref>{{cite web|title=Phys.org|url=https://phys.org/news/2025-03-burials-compelling-evidence-neanderthal-homo.html|publisher=phys.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Inter-Species Cultural Influence: Evidence for cultural exchange with Homo sapiens (e.g., burial similarities) is recent and under review; it’s hard to distinguish independent development vs borrowing. Phys.org<ref>{{cite web|title=Phys.org|url=https://phys.org/news/2025-03-burials-compelling-evidence-neanderthal-homo.html|publisher=phys.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


==== - Neanderthals were not “primitive cavemen.” They had fairly complex technology, social bonds, and possibly symbolic behavior. ====
==== - Neanderthals were not “primitive cavemen.” They had fairly complex technology, social bonds, and possibly symbolic behavior. ====
Line 785: Line 785:
You’ve got the right instincts: there are respectable signals suggesting polygenic selection on cognitive/education-related traits during the Holocene, but the evidence is subtle, methodologically finicky, and contested. Below I’ll give a compact, balanced take: what the strongest positive evidence is, what the major methodological objections are, and what a reasonable position looks like.
You’ve got the right instincts: there are respectable signals suggesting polygenic selection on cognitive/education-related traits during the Holocene, but the evidence is subtle, methodologically finicky, and contested. Below I’ll give a compact, balanced take: what the strongest positive evidence is, what the major methodological objections are, and what a reasonable position looks like.


=== Large GWAS for educational attainment and cognitive proxies, together with population-genetic and ancient-DNA analyses, have produced signals consistent with modest directional selection on alleles that correlate with schooling/cognitive proxies during the Holocene. However, those signals are sensitive to confounding from population structure, LD patterns, and GWAS ascertainment; improved methods and ancient DNA help, but they don’t yet make a fully unambiguous story. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ===
=== Large GWAS for educational attainment and cognitive proxies, together with population-genetic and ancient-DNA analyses, have produced signals consistent with modest directional selection on alleles that correlate with schooling/cognitive proxies during the Holocene. However, those signals are sensitive to confounding from population structure, LD patterns, and GWAS ascertainment; improved methods and ancient DNA help, but they don’t yet make a fully unambiguous story. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ===


=== - Polygenic score differences and cross-population patterns. Multiple papers find that polygenic scores (PGS) for educational attainment (EA) and related cognitive proxies differ systematically between populations in ways that are unlikely under neutral drift alone. These early signals (and their replications) are the raw basis for the claim of selection. Preprints<ref>{{cite web|title=Preprints|url=https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/201611.0047/v1/download|publisher=preprints.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ===
=== - Polygenic score differences and cross-population patterns. Multiple papers find that polygenic scores (PGS) for educational attainment (EA) and related cognitive proxies differ systematically between populations in ways that are unlikely under neutral drift alone. These early signals (and their replications) are the raw basis for the claim of selection. Preprints<ref>{{cite web|title=Preprints|url=https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/201611.0047/v1/download|publisher=preprints.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ===
* Ancient-DNA time transects. Ancient DNA lets researchers track allele-frequency change over millennia. Genome-wide scans across thousands of ancient samples have detected changes consistent with selection at loci tied to complex traits (including cognitive proxies when you map modern GWAS hits onto ancient samples). Mathieson et al. (2015) and follow-ups established the utility of this approach. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4918750/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Ancient-DNA time transects. Ancient DNA lets researchers track allele-frequency change over millennia. Genome-wide scans across thousands of ancient samples have detected changes consistent with selection at loci tied to complex traits (including cognitive proxies when you map modern GWAS hits onto ancient samples). Mathieson et al. (2015) and follow-ups established the utility of this approach. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4918750/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Increasing GWAS power reduces noise. More recent, very large GWAS (e.g., Okbay et al. 2022) identify thousands of loci for EA; larger, better-powered GWAS make polygenic inference less noisy and enable more sensitive tests for selection. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Increasing GWAS power reduces noise. More recent, very large GWAS (e.g., Okbay et al. 2022) identify thousands of loci for EA; larger, better-powered GWAS make polygenic inference less noisy and enable more sensitive tests for selection. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


=== - Population stratification and confounding. GWAS hits can reflect subtle ancestry structure correlated with environment rather than causal biology. When you build PGS from such hits, cross-population comparisons can pick up demography rather than selection. Berg & Coop (2014) introduced many of the analytic controls and warned about this problem; follow-up work has shown it’s a real and nontrivial confound. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4125079/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ===
=== - Population stratification and confounding. GWAS hits can reflect subtle ancestry structure correlated with environment rather than causal biology. When you build PGS from such hits, cross-population comparisons can pick up demography rather than selection. Berg & Coop (2014) introduced many of the analytic controls and warned about this problem; follow-up work has shown it’s a real and nontrivial confound. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4125079/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ===
* LD and ascertainment biases. GWAS hits are discovered in particular LD backgrounds (usually European samples). That affects how signals transfer to other populations and how much of a perceived difference is real. Newer methods try to polarize effects or use within-family designs to reduce this bias. OUP Academic<ref>{{cite web|title=OUP Academic|url=https://academic.oup.com/evlett/article/3/1/69/6697303|publisher=OUP Academic|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* LD and ascertainment biases. GWAS hits are discovered in particular LD backgrounds (usually European samples). That affects how signals transfer to other populations and how much of a perceived difference is real. Newer methods try to polarize effects or use within-family designs to reduce this bias. OUP Academic<ref>{{cite web|title=OUP Academic|url=https://academic.oup.com/evlett/article/3/1/69/6697303|publisher=OUP Academic|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Phenotype proxy limitations. “Educational attainment” is an imperfect proxy for cognitive ability and is heavily shaped by culture, policy, and opportunity. Selection on EA-PGS might reflect selection on correlated traits (health, fertility, social structure) rather than raw intelligence per se. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9582364/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Phenotype proxy limitations. “Educational attainment” is an imperfect proxy for cognitive ability and is heavily shaped by culture, policy, and opportunity. Selection on EA-PGS might reflect selection on correlated traits (health, fertility, social structure) rather than raw intelligence per se. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9582364/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


=== - Strength: ancient DNA lets you observe allele-frequency change through time, which is far stronger evidence of recent selection than cross-sectional PGS differences. Mathieson et al. (2015) and later studies used this to identify selection episodes in the Holocene. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4918750/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ===
=== - Strength: ancient DNA lets you observe allele-frequency change through time, which is far stronger evidence of recent selection than cross-sectional PGS differences. Mathieson et al. (2015) and later studies used this to identify selection episodes in the Holocene. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4918750/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ===
* Limit: linking ancient allele changes to cognition requires mapping modern GWAS hits onto ancient samples—which assumes effect sizes and trait architecture are stable and that the modern phenotype proxy maps cleanly backward. That’s plausible but not airtight.
* Limit: linking ancient allele changes to cognition requires mapping modern GWAS hits onto ancient samples—which assumes effect sizes and trait architecture are stable and that the modern phenotype proxy maps cleanly backward. That’s plausible but not airtight.


=== - Plausible: modest directional selection on alleles correlated with education/cognitive proxies during parts of the Holocene is plausible and supported by multiple lines (PGS differences, aDNA trajectories, and theory about agriculture/urbanism changing selective regimes). Preprints<ref>{{cite web|title=Preprints|url=https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/201611.0047/v1/download|publisher=preprints.org|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ===
=== - Plausible: modest directional selection on alleles correlated with education/cognitive proxies during parts of the Holocene is plausible and supported by multiple lines (PGS differences, aDNA trajectories, and theory about agriculture/urbanism changing selective regimes). Preprints<ref>{{cite web|title=Preprints|url=https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/201611.0047/v1/download|publisher=preprints.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ===
* Qualified: the magnitude, timing, and exact trait under selection are still uncertain because of GWAS confounds, LD/ascertainment biases, and modern phenotype complexity. Treat the conclusion as probabilistic rather than nailed-down fact. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4125079/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Qualified: the magnitude, timing, and exact trait under selection are still uncertain because of GWAS confounds, LD/ascertainment biases, and modern phenotype complexity. Treat the conclusion as probabilistic rather than nailed-down fact. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4125079/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


=== - Fit: If selection favored cognitive/learning traits (e.g., systemizing, attention to detail) at the population level, the polygenic background for those traits would shift. That could increase the population mean for some component traits that overlap with autistic-style cognition. (This is what you were intuiting.) ===
=== - Fit: If selection favored cognitive/learning traits (e.g., systemizing, attention to detail) at the population level, the polygenic background for those traits would shift. That could increase the population mean for some component traits that overlap with autistic-style cognition. (This is what you were intuiting.) ===
* Don’t overreach: ASD as clinical condition depends heavily on rare de novo variants and on combinations that produce impairment. Polygenic shifts in mean cognitive proxies don’t directly translate to large changes in clinical ASD prevalence or to a clean mapping between EA selection and ASD risk. In short: helper overlap possible; direct causal link weak and speculative. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Don’t overreach: ASD as clinical condition depends heavily on rare de novo variants and on combinations that produce impairment. Polygenic shifts in mean cognitive proxies don’t directly translate to large changes in clinical ASD prevalence or to a clean mapping between EA selection and ASD risk. In short: helper overlap possible; direct causal link weak and speculative. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


=== - Read Mathieson et al. (2015) and later ancient-DNA scans for selection to see how allele frequencies moved through the Holocene. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4918750/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref> ===
=== - Read Mathieson et al. (2015) and later ancient-DNA scans for selection to see how allele frequencies moved through the Holocene. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4918750/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> ===
* Read Berg & Coop (2014) and follow-up methodological papers on correcting for stratification in polygenic selection tests. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4125079/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Read Berg & Coop (2014) and follow-up methodological papers on correcting for stratification in polygenic selection tests. PMC<ref>{{cite web|title=PMC|url=https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4125079/|publisher=pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Look at the latest large GWAS (Okbay et al. 2022) and at within-family polygenic analyses (which reduce stratification bias) to see how robust the EA signals are. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>
* Look at the latest large GWAS (Okbay et al. 2022) and at within-family polygenic analyses (which reduce stratification bias) to see how robust the EA signals are. PubMed<ref>{{cite web|title=PubMed|url=https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35361970/|publisher=pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>


=== Your belief that there’s now substantial genomic evidence for Holocene directional selection on cognitive/education-related alleles is defensible — the signal is real enough to be taken seriously. But it’s also correct to be cautious: the claim that this directly drove modern ASD variation or that it is a large, well-quantified effect remains speculative. Use the aDNA + within-family GWAS literature as your most reliable guide. ===
=== Your belief that there’s now substantial genomic evidence for Holocene directional selection on cognitive/education-related alleles is defensible — the signal is real enough to be taken seriously. But it’s also correct to be cautious: the claim that this directly drove modern ASD variation or that it is a large, well-quantified effect remains speculative. Use the aDNA + within-family GWAS literature as your most reliable guide. ===