Editing Openai/69109937-2170-8005-9304-da49840bb5b9 (section)

===== Rough 3–5 year price range: 5–12 USD =====

This is the “boringly successful” outcome.

What it looks like:
* Globetronics + NationGate + SPX ramp to meaningful volume - Yield improves gradually; customers sign additional production orders (like the recent 5 M order, but larger and repeated). POET Technologies<ref>{{cite web|title=POET Technologies|url=https://www.poet-technologies.com/news/poet-technologies-receives-5-million-production-order-for-800g-optical-engines|publisher=POET Technologies|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref> - 800G engines go into volume in 2026; 1.6T and some AI-fabric products follow a year or two later.
* Revenue climbs, but not explosively - Say low tens of millions → mid-tens of millions USD over a few years, not hundreds of millions yet. - Gross margins decent but not spectacular at the beginning (manufacturing learning curve).
* Valuation compresses somewhat as the story matures - Right now you have an enormous P/S because there’s almost no “S” – pure story stock. FullRatio<ref>{{cite web|title=FullRatio|url=https://fullratio.com/stocks/nasdaq-poet/poet-technologies|publisher=fullratio.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref> - As revenue appears, the market may reward lower risk, but also apply a more normal multiple (e.g. 8–15× sales instead of 800×). - The share price can still go up if revenue ramps fast enough, but there’s also a real chance that the stock goes mostly sideways while the business “grows into” its valuation.

Why the range 5–12 USD?
* Downside within this “success” case: - If multiple compresses faster than revenue grows, you can easily end up around today’s price or slightly below (5–7 USD) even with decent execution.
* Moderate upside: - If they hit, say, 50–80 M USD of revenue with decent margins and the market still assigns a growthy fibre-optic multiple, a 1–1.5 B market cap is not crazy → roughly 10–15 USD per share, depending on final share count.

So in the base case you don’t automatically get your “10-bagger”; you get a real company with moderate upside and non-trivial execution risk on the way.