Editing Openai/69109937-2170-8005-9304-da49840bb5b9 (section)

==== Not investment advice, obviously – just a structured way to think about it. I’ll use loose price ranges to avoid fake precision. ====

===== Rough 3–5 year price range: 0–2 USD =====

What has to go wrong:
* Manufacturing never quite stabilises: yields at Globetronics/NationGate and SPX stay mediocre; too much spread in coupling, reliability issues under thermal cycling, lots of rework.
* Customers don’t scale orders: pilots and low-volume orders continue (like the current 5 M order), but nobody commits to real AI-cluster volumes; Celestial, Luxshare, FIT etc. either delay or quietly pivot to alternatives.
* Cash gets burned ahead of revenue: - They have >300 M in the bank now, but heavy capex, opex, and acquisitions eat that over a few years without the corresponding ramp. optics.org<ref>{{cite web|title=optics.org|url=https://optics.org/news/16/10/21|publisher=optics.org|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref> - The market realises revenue will be far below the AI hype narrative → multiple compression and possibly another dilutive raise at low prices.
* Market re-rates all AI-plumbing names: If AI data-center capex slows or investors rotate away from speculative hardware, multiples can be savage.

In that world, the equity drifts toward:
* “Cash plus IP value”,
* Or, in a truly bad outcome, a take-under / asset sale where shareholders only get a fraction of today’s cap.

Given today’s ~5.4 USD price, a worst-case 0–2 USD is not outrageous. We’ve seen this movie with many photonics names before.

===== Rough 3–5 year price range: 5–12 USD =====

This is the “boringly successful” outcome.

What it looks like:
* Globetronics + NationGate + SPX ramp to meaningful volume - Yield improves gradually; customers sign additional production orders (like the recent 5 M order, but larger and repeated). POET Technologies<ref>{{cite web|title=POET Technologies|url=https://www.poet-technologies.com/news/poet-technologies-receives-5-million-production-order-for-800g-optical-engines|publisher=POET Technologies|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref> - 800G engines go into volume in 2026; 1.6T and some AI-fabric products follow a year or two later.
* Revenue climbs, but not explosively - Say low tens of millions → mid-tens of millions USD over a few years, not hundreds of millions yet. - Gross margins decent but not spectacular at the beginning (manufacturing learning curve).
* Valuation compresses somewhat as the story matures - Right now you have an enormous P/S because there’s almost no “S” – pure story stock. FullRatio<ref>{{cite web|title=FullRatio|url=https://fullratio.com/stocks/nasdaq-poet/poet-technologies|publisher=fullratio.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref> - As revenue appears, the market may reward lower risk, but also apply a more normal multiple (e.g. 8–15× sales instead of 800×). - The share price can still go up if revenue ramps fast enough, but there’s also a real chance that the stock goes mostly sideways while the business “grows into” its valuation.

Why the range 5–12 USD?
* Downside within this “success” case: - If multiple compresses faster than revenue grows, you can easily end up around today’s price or slightly below (5–7 USD) even with decent execution.
* Moderate upside: - If they hit, say, 50–80 M USD of revenue with decent margins and the market still assigns a growthy fibre-optic multiple, a 1–1.5 B market cap is not crazy → roughly 10–15 USD per share, depending on final share count.

So in the base case you don’t automatically get your “10-bagger”; you get a real company with moderate upside and non-trivial execution risk on the way.

===== Rough 3–5 year price range: 20–40 USD (and beyond if everything really clicks) =====

This is the full-throttle bull story people dream about:
* POET firmly becomes the “default” optical-engine supplier for a non-trivial slice of AI data-centre and CPO markets: - Multiple hyperscalers adopt products via Luxshare / Foxconn / others. - Celestial-style AI fabrics ship in numbers, with POET’s light engines baked into their solutions. - Sivers+POET ELS for CPO actually takes off around end-2026 as planned. PR Newswire<ref>{{cite web|title=PR Newswire|url=https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/sivers-semiconductors-partners-with-poet-technologies-to-deliver-innovative-light-engines-and-strengthen-serviceable-market-offerings-in-next-gen-ai-infrastructure-302606753.html|publisher=PR Newswire|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>
* Revenue runs into the hundreds of millions - Think 200–400 M USD+ annual sales within 5 years, with attractive gross margins if passive alignment really delivers cost advantage at scale.
* Valuation: still high, but justified by growth - At that point you’re not a tiny speculative any more; you’re a meaningful photonics player in a structural growth market. - A tech market might easily give 5–10× sales to a company growing 30–40 %+ per year, which would be 1–4 B USD market cap.

Rough translation into per-share price:
* 1 B market cap → about 2× today → low teens.
* 2–3 B → roughly 20–30 USD.
* 4 B+ with continued hype → 30–40 USD+.

Is this impossible? No. Is it already partly in the price? Also yes. The market knows AI optical connectivity is hot; the current ~0.5–0.7 B cap reflects that. Yahoo Finanzen<ref>{{cite web|title=Yahoo Finanzen|url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poet-technologies-stock-buy-110000055.html|publisher=Yahoo Finanzen|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>