Editing Openai/6914efcd-d7d8-800a-85de-4212b5b63948 (section)

==== Notes before numbers: ====
* I start from 31/12/24 net debt £52.65m (documented). I treat project financing for AW1 as in project SPV (non-recourse), so plc net debt held fixed unless the plc raises equity or takes corporate debt. For fairness I include a modest corporate interest burden in the cashflow discount; but the headline numbers subtract the reported net debt. Ampeak Energy<ref>{{cite web|title=Ampeak Energy|url=https://ampeak.energy/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/270190-SAE-Annual-Report-2024-CL-web.pdf|publisher=Ampeak Energy|access-date=2025-11-13}}</ref>
* Dilution applied at the end (share issuance % described earlier).

===== - Discount rate: 11% =====
* Assumptions: AW1 per RNS (75.3% share); MeyGen ~annualised H1 revenue; AW2 ownership 50% (first full year 2030); MeyBESS ownership 75% (first full year 2030); per-MWh economics = 60% of AW1 per-MWh EBITDA. Moderate execution risk/timings as above.
* PV of project equity cashflows (2026–2039) discounted to today ≈ £180m (rounded).
* Less net debt (31/12/24): £52.65m → equity value ≈ £127.35m.
* Diluted shares at +15% issuance (base dilution): shares = ≈ 831.2m.
* Implied price per share (Base): ≈ £0.153 → 15.3 pence.

: 

===== - Discount rate: 9%. =====
* AW2 & MeyBESS per-MWh economics = 100% AW1 (i.e., £37.5k/MWh), AW2 ownership 75%, MeyBESS 90%. Assume minimal corporate dilution +5% shares. Faster execution (AW2/MeyBESS by 2029-30). CfD awards for MeyGen expansions also convert to strong cashflows.
* PV of project cashflows ≈ £360m. Less net debt £52.65m → equity value ≈ £307.4m. Shares after +5% → ≈ 759.0m.
* Implied price per share (Bull): ≈ £0.405 → 40.5 pence.

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===== - Discount rate: 14%. =====
* AW2/MeyBESS per-MWh economics = 40% of AW1 per-MWh; AW2 ownership 30%, MeyBESS 50%; larger equity issuance +30% shares over time to cover equity contributions / working capital. Delays push earliest commercial dates out by 1–2 years.
* PV project cashflows ≈ £48m. Less net debt £52.65m → equity value ≈ -£4.65m (i.e., negative equity). Dilution consumes remaining value but headline implied price per share ≈ £0.00 – 0.005 (0–0.5 pence). Practically the company shares trade at pennies in this case; the market price would reflect ongoing equity raises (this is close to the “balance sheet stress / heavy dilution” outcome).

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