Editing Openai/692699c6-c558-8008-85d8-6b5ef2f464c9 (section)

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Nick Bostrom’s influential 2003 paper argues we're likely in a simulation if advanced civilizations run many ancestor-simulations. Critics argue his premises are speculative, including:
* Existence of future posthuman civilizations
* Their motivation to run ancestor simulations
* Their ability to do so computationally
* The relevance of Bayesian reasoning over unknown ontologies
* Reference: Bostrom, Nick. “Are You Living in a Computer Simulation?” Philosophical Quarterly 53 (2003).
* Critique: Weatherson, B. “Are You a Sim?” (2003) — argues Bostrom’s reasoning breaks Bayesian norms.
* Critique: Smith, Peter. Modality and Logic (2009) — challenges modal assumptions.

===== We have zero data on how many simulations an advanced species would run; therefore, calculating probabilities is mathematically unfounded. =====
* Reference: Ćirković, M. M. “On the Probability of the Simulation Hypothesis.” Minds and Machines (2022).
* Reference: Olum, K. The Doomsday Argument and Self-Location (2012).