Editing Openai/69434f20-ed90-800d-ab60-60312c9de3dd (section)

=== User: Captain Blue made this forum thread: ===
Captain Blue made this forum thread:
I got AI to Generate The chance of Getting a Cheater every game In ARC Raiders
This is based on a 20 player game. where you are excluded for being 100% not a cheater.

Cheater % | Probability of at least 1 cheater
5% | 62.3%
10% | 86.5%
15% | 95.3%
20% | 98.9%
25% | 99.8%
30% | 99.97%
35% | 99.998%
40% | 99.9999%

📐 Formula
Let:
* p = probability that any given player is a cheater (cheater percentage as a decimal, e.g. 0.10 for 10%)
* n = number of other players (here n=19)
* Probability that a single player is not a cheater:
1-p- Probability that none of the 19 players are cheaters:
(1-p)^n- Probability that at least one cheater is present:
P(\mathrm{at\ least\ one\ cheater})=1-(1-p)^n

AI says about 1 in 4 players cheat based on people who admit to cheating. So many would not report to cheating. So the percentage of people cheating is somewhere around 25%+

So that means you have 99.8%+ chance to get a cheater every game of ARC Raiders

1 Cheater is more likely to wipe the whole server and kill the other legit players. Which would happen nearly every game.

Which means you will get players LIKE ME who say they get killed by cheaters nearly every game.

EDIT

📊 Empirical Evidence Streams
# Self‑Report Surveys (Online Play)
• A SurveyMonkey poll found 27% of gamers admitted to cheating in video games. While this includes all games, industry analysts note the rate is higher in competitive online titles.
• ExpertBeacon’s analysis places the overall cheating rate at 25–30%, with spikes in online shooters like Call of Duty: Warzone and Apex Legends.
# Encounter Surveys (Online Multiplayer)
• PlaySafe ID’s Gaming’s Cheating Crisis Report shows 80% of gamers have encountered cheaters online, with more than half facing them monthly.
• Statista’s 2023 survey across the US, UK, and South Korea found cheating/tampering was the most common toxic behavior in online multiplayer, reported by a majority of respondents.
# Publisher Ban Statistics
• Activision reported banning over 500,000 accounts in Warzone’s first year, Riot bans tens of thousands monthly in Valorant, and Valve’s VAC system has issued millions of bans in CS:GO.
• These figures imply far more than 5% of the player base is cheating, especially in competitive shooters.
# Cheat‑Seller Market Data
• Studies estimate the cheat‑selling industry generates $12M–$73M annually, with 30,000–174,000 active subscribers per month. This scale is only plausible if a significant fraction of online players (well above 5%) are paying for cheats.

⚖️ Why Analysts Cite 30–40%
• 25–30% baseline comes from broad surveys.
• Competitive PvP titles show higher rates due to stronger incentives (ranked ladders, esports, monetization). Analysts extrapolate this to 30–40% in online shooters and competitive games.
• Encounter data (80% of players seeing cheaters) supports the idea that cheaters are disproportionately concentrated in popular online modes, making them far more visible.

🧩 Conclusion
The 30–40% figure is not from a single survey, but from triangulating:
• 25–30% self‑admitted cheating (empirical surveys)
• 80% encounter rates (empirical player experience studies)
• Mass ban statistics (empirical publisher enforcement data)
• Cheat‑seller revenues (empirical market analysis)
Together, these streams make the 30–40% estimate for online multiplayer cheating empirically plausible, especially in competitive PvP environments.