Editing Openai/6935aaed-f35c-8004-8137-e0b2dcf25c84 (section)

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* The Mueller investigation documented extensive Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election and numerous contacts between Trump associates and Russians, but it did not establish that the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in a criminal sense. It also described 10 episodes where Trump may have obstructed justice, but explicitly said it did not exonerate him. Wikipedia<ref>{{cite web|title=Wikipedia|url=https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mueller_report|publisher=en.wikipedia.org|access-date=2025-12-07}}</ref>
* A lot of the “Putin has kompromat on Trump” narrative comes from the Steele dossier, which remains unverified and partially discredited in key parts. Even mainstream summaries of the Putin–Trump relationship explicitly note that this remains in the realm of speculation, not proven fact. Reuters<ref>{{cite web|title=Reuters|url=https://www.reuters.com/world/what-do-we-know-about-putin-trump-relationship-2025-02-13/|publisher=reuters.com|access-date=2025-12-07}}</ref>

So: there are troubling patterns, alignments, and investigations, but no public proof that Putin literally controls Trump via blackmail.

===== Most serious analyses of Putin’s invasion and persistence in Ukraine point to things like: =====
* Imperial/ideological goals – restoring Russian influence over what he sees as “historical Russian lands,” framed in his essay on the “unity” of Russians and Ukrainians. Military and Strategic Studies Journal<ref>{{cite web|title=Military and Strategic Studies Journal|url=https://jmss.org/article/download/76584/56335/235703|publisher=Military and Strategic Studies Journal|access-date=2025-12-07}}</ref>
* Domestic regime security – wars (Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea) have historically been used to bolster his legitimacy and image as a strong leader. PLST Rice University<ref>{{cite web|title=PLST Rice University|url=https://politics.rice.edu/sites/g/files/bxs3081/files/2023-01/Russo-Ukrainian%20War%202.pdf|publisher=PLST Rice University|access-date=2025-12-07}}</ref>
* Security buffer / NATO hostility – long-standing Russian elite obsession with limiting NATO expansion and keeping Ukraine in Russia’s sphere of influence. Science Open<ref>{{cite web|title=Science Open|url=https://www.scienceopen.com/hosted-document?doi=10.13169%2Fjglobfaul.12.2.0005|publisher=Science Open|access-date=2025-12-07}}</ref>

All of those are Russia-centric drivers; none of the respectable analyses make “control over Trump” the main or even a primary explanatory variable for why Putin keeps going in Ukraine.

Trump’s current temptation to cut a deal with Russia or pressure Ukraine into a disadvantageous peace is discussed in policy writing as partly shaped by his personal preferences, business/political baggage, and Putin’s negotiation leverage—but again, that’s political leverage in negotiations, not hard evidence of blackmail. Le Monde.fr<ref>{{cite web|title=Le Monde.fr|url=https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/11/26/trump-s-temptation-to-abandon-ukraine-casts-munich-shadow-over-the-white-house_6747862_23.html|publisher=Le Monde.fr|date=2025-11-26|access-date=2025-12-07}}</ref>