Editing Openai/6916508e-bda0-800a-b006-5a8e1e85b57c (section)

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Morocco was already:
* a centralized state
* internationally recognized (treaties with Europe, the U.S., the Ottoman Empire, etc.)
* ruled by long-lasting dynasties (Idrisids, Almoravids, Almohads, Marinids, Wattasids, Saadians, Alaouites)

The Alaouite dynasty (current rulers) had already unified the territory by the 17th century.

👉 Morocco would almost certainly remain a unified, independent kingdom with borders close to today’s (minus colonial adjustments in the Sahara).

==== Before French colonization, “Algeria” was not a single country. ====

Instead, it was the Regency of Algiers, an Ottoman vassal state with:
* weak central control outside the coast
* powerful autonomous tribal confederations (Kabyles, Chaoui, Ouled Naïl, etc.)
* three major semi-independent regions: - Beylik of Constantine (East) - Beylik of Titteri (Center) - Western tribes & Oran region, often influenced by Morocco

Without colonization, these regions would probably not merge into one nation-state.
They would most likely form 2–3 different countries, loosely Muslim and Amazigh, similar to historical divisions.

👉 Most likely outcome: 2–3 successor states from the old Ottoman regencies, not modern Algeria.

==== The Husaynid Beylik of Tunis (Ottoman vassal in name only): ====
* had strong internal administration
* collected taxes, minted coins
* maintained diplomatic relations with Europe
* was more cohesive and centralized than Algiers or Tripoli

Tunisia was essentially a sovereign state before colonization.

👉 Tunisia would remain a unified country, maybe a constitutional monarchy or a republic.

==== There was no unified “Libya.” ====
Instead, there were three distinct regions:

===== - The Karamanli dynasty ruled with semi-independence from the Ottoman Empire. =====
* Coastal merchant state.

===== - Dominated by the Sanusi Order in the 18th–19th centuries. =====
* Strong Sufi-tribal authority.

===== - Governed by local Amazigh and Arab clans with ties to Bornu and the Tuareg. =====

These three regions were only welded together by Italian colonization, not by their own historical identity.

👉 Without colonization, Libya would most likely be 2–3 separate countries (Tripoli, Cyrenaica, Fezzan).

==== Large parts of the Sahara were never ruled by any centralized North African state. ====

Key groups:
* Tuareg confederations (Kel Ahaggar, Kel Ajjer, Kel Adrar, etc.)
* Saharan Amazigh tribes
* Toubou/Kanuri spheres in the deep south

These were political entities with:
* courts
* tribute systems
* defined territories
* diplomacy with Morocco, the Ottomans, and Sahelian empires

👉 Tuareg or Toubou states would almost certainly exist, independent or loosely federated.