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=== Assistant: If Toyota does not seriously move into EVs over the next 10 years, the consequences would be severe, even for a giant l… === If Toyota does not seriously move into EVs over the next 10 years, the consequences would be severe, even for a giant like Toyota. Here’s the clear, no-nonsense breakdown. ==== Governments are forcing the shift, whether Toyota likes it or not. ==== * EU: New petrol/diesel car sales banned by 2035 * UK, Canada, parts of Asia: Similar timelines * China: Already EV-first; Toyota is weak there in EVs * US (states like California): Aggressive EV mandates 👉 If Toyota doesn’t comply, they simply can’t sell cars in these markets. ==== Brands that go EV-first will take Toyota’s customers. ==== * Tesla, BYD, Hyundai–Kia, VW, Chinese brands * Even budget buyers are moving to EVs * Younger buyers expect EV options Toyota risks becoming a “legacy brand” instead of a leader. ==== ICE (petrol/diesel) development will become: ==== * More expensive (emission compliance costs) * Less scalable (shrinking volumes) * Politically risky Meanwhile, EV makers will enjoy: * Lower long-term production costs * Software & subscription revenue * Battery supply chain control Toyota could survive—but with much lower profits. ==== Toyota’s strength is hybrids. But: ==== * Hybrids are a transition technology * Regulators increasingly treat hybrids like ICE * Some countries already plan to ban new hybrids Hybrids buy time—but not 10 years. ==== - Battery experts, software engineers, AI talent go where EVs are ==== * Suppliers will pivot to EV platforms * Toyota risks internal skill decay This is how big companies slowly die—not overnight, but structurally. ==== Investors care about the future, not the past. ==== * EV laggards trade at lower valuations * Capital becomes more expensive * R&D budget pressure increases Toyota’s brand alone won’t protect its valuation. ==== No — Toyota wouldn’t collapse. ==== But it could become something like: * “The Nokia of cars” * Still alive, but no longer dominant ==== Toyota must: ==== * Go full EV in key markets * Use hybrids only where EV infrastructure is weak (like parts of Sri Lanka, Africa) * Accelerate solid-state battery development * Partner aggressively (not slowly) with battery and software companies ===== If Toyota ignores EVs for the next decade: ===== * ❌ Loses markets * ❌ Loses relevance * ❌ Loses profits Moving late is survivable. Refusing to move is not. If you want, I can also explain: * Why Toyota has been slow on EVs (it’s not stupidity) * Whether hydrogen can realistically save them * How this affects countries like Sri Lanka specifically
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