Editing Openai/69439ed2-a934-800b-ad0f-4b1320a3650b (section)

==== This is the heart of the demonstration: sanctions are not magic. They operate through bottlenecks. ====

===== U.S. rules often contain humanitarian carve-outs (licenses, authorizations, permitted categories), and U.S. government materials emphasize that many medicines and medical items can be sent through authorized channels. State Department<ref>{{cite web|title=State Department|url=https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-provision-of-humanitarian-assistance-to-cuba|publisher=State Department|access-date=2025-12-18}}</ref> =====

But the lived effect can still be constraining because the real system is not “is it theoretically allowed?” but:
* financing routes
* correspondent banking
* shipping and insurance decisions
* supplier risk tolerance and compliance cost
* third-country overcompliance

If your analysis only says “humanitarian goods are allowed,” it fails empirically. If it only says “sanctions prevent all medicine,” it fails legally and mechanically. The truth, in many sanctions regimes, lives in the friction between those two.

===== Aedes control is logistics-heavy. Trucks, sprayers, foggers, teams, scheduling, and repeat coverage all require reliable fuel and operational supply chains. Belly of the Beast explicitly ties fuel scarcity to reduced fumigation. Belly of the Beast<ref>{{cite web|title=Belly of the Beast|url=https://www.bellyofthebeastcuba.com/why-is-cuba-facinng-a-mosquito-virus-crisis|publisher=Belly of the Beast|access-date=2025-12-18}}</ref> =====

Here is the key methodological point: even if medicine were fully available, a fuel-limited vector-control system can still lose the transmission battle.

===== Reporting describes conditions that amplify mosquito breeding and exposure: uncollected trash, water leaks, infrastructure repair delays, and power shortages that change household water storage behavior. El País<ref>{{cite web|title=El País|url=https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/cuba-fights-contain-spread-mosquito-borne-chikungunya-virus-2025-11-13/|publisher=El País|access-date=2025-12-18}}</ref> =====

Sanctions might contribute indirectly here (through macroeconomic pressure and import constraints), but domestic governance, resource allocation, and hurricane/seasonal effects can also be major independent drivers. The Guardian explicitly situates the outbreak alongside broader economic crisis and storm impacts. The Guardian<ref>{{cite web|title=The Guardian|url=https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/nov/20/they-just-call-it-the-virus-mosquito-borne-illnesses-heap-misery-on-cubans-affected-by-hurricane-melissa|publisher=The Guardian|access-date=2025-12-18}}</ref>

That is a crucial “scale-respecting” stance: multi-causality is not moral evasion. It is realism.