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Openai/6914efcd-d7d8-800a-85de-4212b5b63948
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===== β‘ Ampeak Energy β Base Case Milestone & Share Price Outlook ===== | Year | Milestone / Event | Operational Impact | Expected Share Price Trend (Base Case) | | ----------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------- | | 2025 | β’ AW1 reaches financial close (Aug 2025) β’ MeyGen Phase 1 steady output (~7β8 GWh H1 2025) | Limited cash inflow; sentiment improves as financing de-risks AW1 | 2 β 3 p | | 2026 | β’ AW1 under construction (240 MWh) β’ AW2 & MeyBESS grid prep | High capex year; little revenue, slight equity raise risk | 2 β 4 p | | 2027 | β’ AW1 fully operational β adds ~Β£5 m net cashflow p.a. | First profitable year; visible recurring cash | 5 β 8 p | | 2028 | β’ AW1 stable, debt begins to ease β’ AW2/MeyBESS in late-stage planning | Market starts pricing growth pipeline | 8 β 10 p | | 2029 | β’ AW2 & MeyBESS construction phase (combined 2.45 GWh) | Major expansion visibility; value inflection point | 10 β 13 p | | 2030 | β’ AW2 & MeyBESS first full year of ops β’ Group after-tax CF ~Β£25 m p.a. | Cashflows triple; balance sheet improves | 13 β 16 p | | Beyond 2030 | β’ Uskmouth expansion to ~3β4 GWh β’ MeyGen CfD phases online | Scaled IPP platform; institutional re-rating likely | 15 β 20 p + (upside range) |
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