Editing Openai/69566be9-e9c0-8009-992a-722fd2764e7a (section)

=== Assistant: Below is a directional bias check, point by point. ===
Below is a directional bias check, point by point. No hedging.

===== Skew: In favour of current EU policy =====
* EU policy is normatively framed as defending democracy, sovereignty, and international law.
* Respondents know which answer is “respectable.”
* Result: overstatement of support for Ukraine aid, sanctions, and hardline positions; underreporting of doubt, fatigue, or accommodationist views.

===== Skew: In favour of current EU policy =====
* European mainstream parties and media are unusually aligned.
* Citizens often reproduce elite frames rather than independent cost–benefit reasoning.
* Result: polls capture elite consensus, not latent public tolerance for deviation (e.g., negotiations, territorial compromise).

===== Skew: In favour of current EU policy (at first glance) =====
* Abstract support (“stand with Ukraine”) is cheap.
* When costs are specified (energy prices, taxes, conscription, long war), support drops sharply.
* Standard questions stop before that drop.
* Result: symbolic over-support, masking conditional or brittle backing.

===== Skew: Mostly in favour of current EU policy, but unevenly =====
* In Eastern Europe, “support Ukraine” may mean existential security.
* In Southern/Western Europe, it may mean general sympathy.
* Aggregated EU-level figures overweight symbolic agreement and underweight divergent strategic meanings.
* Result: a false sense of pan-European coherence around EU policy.

===== Skew: Strongly in favour of current EU policy =====
* Skeptical positions (anti-sanctions, neutralism, accommodation, Russia-sympathetic views) are stigmatized.
* These respondents self-censor or choose softer options.
* This is directional bias, not random noise.
* Result: opposition appears smaller, weaker, and more fragmented than it is.

==== All five mechanisms skew systematically in favour of the current EU line on the war. ====

So:
* If a poll says “60% support EU policy,” the true distribution is likely flatter, more conditional, and more polarized.
* The biggest error is not variance, but missing dissent.

These polls measure norm compliance under conditions of elite consensus, not stable democratic mandate.