Editing Openai/69192c26-dfcc-8013-9959-8ec86d81e91f (section)

==== 만약 투자자/리스크 관리자의 관점에서 본다면, 다음 지표들을 챙겨보는 것이 실질적으로 유의미합니다. ====
# 개별 은행 - PF 익스포져(대출+보증)/총 대출, PF 익스포져/자기자본 비율 - PF 연체율 및 충당금 커버리지
# 증권사·저축은행 - PF 대출 + PF ABCP/ABSTB 보증 잔액 / 자기자본 - PF 포트폴리오의 지역·사업 유형 분산도(비수도권 비중, 오피스텔·상가 비중 등)
# 시스템 레벨 - 금융감독원 발표 PF 연체율·위험 PF 규모 추이 - 미분양·준공후 미분양 물량 추이 (국토부 통계) - 단기자금시장(ABCP, CP) 스프레드 및 롤오버 상황
# 매크로 - 가계부채/GDP, 가계부채/가처분소득, DSR 규제강도, - 부동산 가격지수·거래량(특히 수도권 vs 지방 괴리)

이 지표들이 동시에 악화 + 정책 대응이 뒤따르지 않는 경우에는, “나라가 망한다”까지는 아니더라도 장기 저성장 + 금융·건설 섹터 구조조정 장기화 같은 시나리오 확률이 높아질 수 있습니다.

관련 기사 더 보기ReutersSouth Korea tightens scrutiny to speed up real estate restructuringMay 12, 2024<ref>{{cite web|title=ReutersSouth Korea tightens scrutiny to speed up real estate restructuringMay 12, 2024|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/south-korea-tightens-scrutiny-speed-up-real-estate-restructuring-2024-05-13/|publisher=ReutersSouth Korea tightens scrutiny to speed up real estate restructuringMay 12, 2024|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>ReutersBank of Korea flags risk of stronger downward pressure on wonJun 25, 2024<ref>{{cite web|title=ReutersBank of Korea flags risk of stronger downward pressure on wonJun 25, 2024|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bank-korea-flags-risk-stronger-downward-pressure-won-2024-06-26/|publisher=ReutersBank of Korea flags risk of stronger downward pressure on wonJun 25, 2024|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>ReutersEU banks vulnerable to real estate 'cracks', says watchdogJul 2, 2024<ref>{{cite web|title=ReutersEU banks vulnerable to real estate 'cracks', says watchdogJul 2, 2024|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-banks-vulnerable-real-estate-cracks-says-watchdog-2024-07-02/|publisher=ReutersEU banks vulnerable to real estate 'cracks', says watchdogJul 2, 2024|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>ReutersSouth Korea vows all-out effort to stabilise rising house pricesJul 18, 2024<ref>{{cite web|title=ReutersSouth Korea vows all-out effort to stabilise rising house pricesJul 18, 2024|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/south-korea-vows-all-out-effort-stabilise-rising-house-prices-2024-07-18/|publisher=ReutersSouth Korea vows all-out effort to stabilise rising house pricesJul 18, 2024|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>ReutersSouth Korea household borrowing posts biggest jump in over three yearsSep 10, 2024<ref>{{cite web|title=ReutersSouth Korea household borrowing posts biggest jump in over three yearsSep 10, 2024|url=https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/south-korea-household-borrowing-posts-biggest-jump-over-three-years-2024-09-11/|publisher=ReutersSouth Korea household borrowing posts biggest jump in over three yearsSep 10, 2024|access-date=2025-11-16}}</ref>