Editing Openai/69640cff-e5e0-8003-a8d1-a78b118ca18b (section)

==== Two points can both be true: ====
* fiscal impact is not the welfare measure (your warning is correct),
* but fiscal impacts can still affect welfare through taxes, public goods, and distortions.

A widely cited UK study is Dustmann & Frattini (Economic Journal, 2014), which estimates that over 1995–2011:
* EEA immigrants made a positive net fiscal contribution,
* non‑EEA immigrants made a negative net fiscal contribution (in their accounting framework).

More recent UK policy work (e.g., the MAC’s newer methodology and annual reporting) emphasizes that fiscal impacts vary hugely by route and life-cycle profile, and presents dynamic/lifetime-style estimates, again highlighting heterogeneity.

For low-skilled immigration specifically, the fiscal sign depends on:
* earnings trajectory (including skill acquisition),
* family composition and dependants,
* entitlement rules,
* age at arrival and retirement location,
* and local public-service costs.

But even a negative fiscal number does not imply negative overall welfare, because:
* it can be offset by consumer-price gains, productivity gains, and capital income gains;
* and it is partly a redistribution question (who pays/receives).