Editing Openai/69109937-2170-8005-9304-da49840bb5b9 (section)

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* As I noted earlier, passive alignment arguably offers major advantages in cost, throughput and automation. If POET can deliver on their interposer and coupling performance, they may achieve a disruptive cost structure.
* Some independent commentary suggests that POET’s architecture is indeed being recognised as novel and promising. shareholdersunite.substack.com<ref>{{cite web|title=shareholdersunite.substack.com|url=https://shareholdersunite.substack.com/p/a-primer-on-poet-technologies|publisher=shareholdersunite.substack.com|access-date=2025-11-10}}</ref>
* The market demand (hyperscale data-centres, co-packaged optics, low-cost optical I/O) is large and growing — which gives POET a strong tailwind.

===== - Crux seems to assume that the performance gap between passive alignment and active alignment will remain large. Counter-argument: If passive alignment engineering is refined (i.e., alignment trenches, lithographically defined features, thermal compensation structures), the gap may shrink to an acceptable level for many applications — especially where cost matters more than absolute best coupling. =====
* Crux emphasises scaling risk, but all new packaging technologies face scale-up risk. Arguing scale risk is valid, but not a differentiator solely for POET. The question is: “Does POET’s model make scaling easier than incumbents?” I argue yes — wafer-scale, automated, passive alignment is inherently more scalable than individual active-alignment modules.
* On the competitive risk: Crux may under-estimate the inertia and cost base of incumbents. Incumbents using active alignment may struggle to reduce cost further due to inherent equipment/time per unit. In that sense, POET may have structural advantage.
* On tolerance/variation risk: Crux emphasises laser/fibre variation. But POET’s model may incorporate process control, interposer design compensation, thermal design, and pre-characterised lasers — meaning the variation may be managed. So Crux’s assumption that the variation risk is insurmountable may be over-pessimistic.