Editing Openai/691a94b5-7718-8006-a4b8-bdd4b670138b (section)

==== 2. What’s happened over the last 10 years? ====

You asked specifically: up, down, or flat?

===== Big picture: nominal $$ per acre has gone up =====

Several indicators point the same direction:
* For row crops, which have better time-series, analysts find that pesticide/chemical costs per acre have risen ~6–7% annually since 2000 – roughly tracking revenue per acre – with notable jumps around 2013 and again in the mid-2010s. farmdoc daily<ref>{{cite web|title=farmdoc daily|url=https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/04/update-on-growth-rates-of-fertilizer-pesticide-and-seed-costs-over-time.html|publisher=farmdoc daily|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref> Specialty crops typically use more pesticide per acre than field crops, so they are exposed to these same price trends (or worse). Economic Research Service<ref>{{cite web|title=Economic Research Service|url=https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/publications/41882/30074_arei3-2.pdf|publisher=Economic Research Service|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* For citrus, USDA’s Fruit and Tree Nuts Outlook showed that per-acre costs (including weed control and foliar sprays) for Florida orange groves increased about 7% per year from 2004/05 to 2014/15, dipped for a few years, and then started rising again after the 2021/22 season. Economic Research Service<ref>{{cite web|title=Economic Research Service|url=https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/110107/FTS-380.pdf?v=46377|publisher=Economic Research Service|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* California pesticide use reporting shows biopesticide pounds and treated acres up 56% and 30% over the last decade, indicating more intensive or diversified pest programs, even as some older AIs are phased out. Department of Pesticide Regulation<ref>{{cite web|title=Department of Pesticide Regulation|url=https://www.cdpr.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/pur_2022_data_summary.pdf|publisher=Department of Pesticide Regulation|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Globally, FAO data show continued increases in pesticide use volume in the Americas and Asia from 1990–2022, with only modest declines in Europe. FAOHome<ref>{{cite web|title=FAOHome|url=https://www.fao.org/statistics/highlights-archive/highlights-detail/pesticides-use-and-trade-1990-2022/en|publisher=fao.org|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>

In specialty-crop enterprise budgets, you see the same:
* UC Davis strawberry cost studies show total per-acre costs up ~18% just since 2021, with pest management a major part of that stack. Farm Bureau<ref>{{cite web|title=Farm Bureau|url=https://www.fb.org/market-intel/specialty-crops-mounting-cost-pressure-limited-risk-protection|publisher=Farm Bureau|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* New iceberg lettuce/broccoli budgets show hundreds of dollars per acre just for fungicide + insecticide materials; older 2000s budgets list the same actives at lower prices and less complex programs. Cost Study Files<ref>{{cite web|title=Cost Study Files|url=https://coststudyfiles.ucdavis.edu/uploads/pub/2023/08/04/2023-iceberglettuce-full-final.pdf|publisher=Cost Study Files|date=2023-08-04|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
* Almond budgets and NOW-control economics show significant spend per acre on pesticides and sanitation that has generally crept upward as pest pressure and quality standards tightened. The Almond Board of California<ref>{{cite web|title=The Almond Board of California|url=https://www.almonds.org/sites/default/files/2024-12/Economics%20of%20Almond%20Production%20-%20Final.pdf|publisher=The Almond Board of California|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>

===== Adjusting for inflation =====

If you deflate those nominal increases:
* Real (inflation-adjusted) pesticide spend per acre in many systems is more “flat to moderately higher,” not a straight line up.
* But even on a real basis, specialty crops that have added sprays (new invasive pests, resistance, disease cycles) look higher per acre than 10–15 years ago – strawberries, almonds, citrus, some veg.

===== Why it’s gone up =====

Drivers you’re probably already thinking about:
# Product price & formulation shifts - Move from older, broad-spectrum chemistries to newer, often more expensive, reduced-risk AIs.
# More complex pest & disease pressure - Invasive pests (e.g., NOW pressure in almonds, HLB in citrus, assorted disease complexes in berries/veg) → additional sprays or mating disruption. Economic Research Service<ref>{{cite web|title=Economic Research Service|url=https://ers.usda.gov/sites/default/files/_laserfiche/outlooks/110107/FTS-380.pdf?v=46377|publisher=Economic Research Service|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>
# Regulation & loss of tools - Restrictions or cancellations on some high-leverage actives force adoption of multi-product programs that can cost more per acre even if total pounds of AI decline.
# General input inflation since ~2020 - Post-COVID supply chain plus higher energy costs pushed all crop protection prices up along with freight and formulation costs. farmdoc daily<ref>{{cite web|title=farmdoc daily|url=https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/04/update-on-growth-rates-of-fertilizer-pesticide-and-seed-costs-over-time.html|publisher=farmdoc daily|access-date=2025-11-17}}</ref>