Editing Openai/696c083a-4084-8000-8ee6-668d591b74ab


{{DISPLAYTITLE:Deportation Orders Release Estimate}}

''This conversation was exported from ChatGPT''<ref>{{cite web|title=Deportation Orders Release Estimate|url=https://chatgpt.com/share/696c083a-4084-8000-8ee6-668d591b74ab|publisher=ChatGPT|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

== gpt-5-2 ==
=== User: Estimate the percentage of persons with deportation orders that are released from Minneapolis jails without informing i… ===
Estimate the percentage of persons with deportation orders that are released from Minneapolis jails without informing immigration authorities.

=== Assistant: There’s no reliable, publicly available data that gives a solid percentage estimate of how many people in Minneapolis j… ===
There’s no reliable, publicly available data that gives a solid percentage estimate of how many people in Minneapolis jails who have deportation orders or ICE detainers are released without notifying immigration authorities. Here’s why:

===== 1. Minneapolis / Hennepin County Policies =====
* Hennepin County (which includes Minneapolis) has a policy of not holding people solely for civil immigration detainers and historically has not necessarily notified ICE before all releases — according to federal litigation and DOJ claims. AP News<ref>{{cite web|title=AP News|url=https://apnews.com/article/60d8f35809fa299861107379223ae2bf|publisher=AP News|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>
* A specific case cited by DHS noted that the Hennepin County Jail released an individual subject to an ICE detainer without notifying ICE in at least one documented instance (Aug. 2024). Department of Homeland Security<ref>{{cite web|title=Department of Homeland Security|url=https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/01/14/mayor-freys-sanctuary-policies-release-criminal-illegal-aliens-jails-back|publisher=Department of Homeland Security|date=2026-01-14|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>
* Local officials dispute DHS’s claims, stressing they cooperate where required by law and that only a few such cases ever occurred. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>
# No Systematic Reporting or Percentage Figures
* There is no publicly released, up-to-date statistic from ICE, Minnesota state or Hennepin County that shows the share of all persons with removal/detainer orders released without notification.
* Historical ICE “Declined Detainer Outcome Reports” (from older nationwide weekly reports) listed some jurisdictions and individual cases where detainers were declined, but these reports are limited, outdated, and incomplete for modern Minnesota cases — and do not provide overall percentages. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement<ref>{{cite web|title=U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement|url=https://www.ice.gov/doclib/ddor/ddor2017_02-11to02-17.pdf|publisher=U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== - ICE does not systematically publish declined detainer outcomes by locality or on a comprehensive basis for all of Minnesota or Minneapolis. =====
* Local law enforcement agencies typically do not share complete release data tied to immigration notifications.
* State and federal officials disagree on even basic figures and what they represent, making estimates speculative. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== Claims from various federal announcements or lawsuits have suggested that “hundreds” of individuals in Minnesota custody with immigration detainers have been released without federal pickup or notification — but those figures have not been independently verified by transparent data and are disputed by local authorities. AP News<ref>{{cite web|title=AP News|url=https://apnews.com/article/60d8f35809fa299861107379223ae2bf|publisher=AP News|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref> =====

If one were to take the federal claims at face value (for example, “nearly 470 released” according to DHS assertions in a recent press statement), and compare that to general local jail populations of removable individuals (which are a small fraction of total detainees), you might see rough, speculative estimates in the '''tens of percent''' — but this estimate isn’t supported by solid public data, and such figures should be treated cautiously. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== - There is no authoritative or transparent statistic that states the percentage of persons with deportation orders released from Minneapolis jails without notifying immigration authorities. =====
* Public reporting and official figures are inconsistent and often contested.
* Specific local incidents (e.g., a few releases without notification) are known, but do not represent a verified percentage of all such cases.

If you need estimates for a specific year or policy analysis, I can help outline how analysts construct those estimates with assumptions — just let me know!

=== User: Do the local authorities claim that they do hold them for ice? ===
Do the local authorities claim that they do hold them for ice?

=== Assistant: Yes — local authorities in Minneapolis specifically Hennepin County Sheriff’s Office and some state officials do public… ===
Yes — local authorities in Minneapolis (specifically Hennepin County Sheriff’s Office and some state officials) ''do'' publicly assert that they cooperate with ICE in legal ways, but they also clearly state they ''don’t hold people solely on civil ICE detainers without proper authority''. This is a point of dispute between local officials and federal immigration authorities: FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== - The Hennepin County Sheriff’s Office says they do ''not'' participate in civil immigration enforcement and do not honor ICE detainers as a basis to extend detention beyond the time someone would otherwise be released under state/local law. Hennepin County<ref>{{cite web|title=Hennepin County|url=https://www.hennepin.us/residents/emergencies/county-federal-response|publisher=Hennepin County|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref> =====
* They emphasize that they will cooperate with ICE only if ICE has a valid judicial warrant — meaning a warrant signed by a judge that gives legal authority to detain — but not on the basis of administrative civil immigration detainer requests alone. Hennepin County<ref>{{cite web|title=Hennepin County|url=https://www.hennepin.us/residents/emergencies/county-federal-response|publisher=Hennepin County|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>
'' In response to a federal report claiming that Hennepin County released individuals without notifying ICE, the Sheriff argued that they ''did* cooperate and notify ICE, and that those individuals were transferred into ICE custody upon release — while still stating that ICE detainers by themselves are not binding. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== - The Minnesota Attorney General’s Office has issued a formal opinion stating that Minnesota law prohibits law enforcement agencies from holding someone solely because of an ICE detainer if they would otherwise be released. ICE detainers are “requests,” not mandatory commands. Minnesota Attorney General<ref>{{cite web|title=Minnesota Attorney General|url=https://www.ag.state.mn.us/Office/Communications/2025/02/06_ImmigrationDetainer.asp|publisher=Minnesota Attorney General|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref> =====
* Under this view, local law enforcement cannot legally extend detention based solely on an ICE detainer — they may notify ICE of a person’s scheduled release time but legally cannot hold someone longer without judicial authority. Minnesota Attorney General<ref>{{cite web|title=Minnesota Attorney General|url=https://www.ag.state.mn.us/Office/Communications/2025/02/06_ImmigrationDetainer.asp|publisher=Minnesota Attorney General|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== - Federal authorities (ICE / DHS) have publicly criticized local policies, saying that sheriff’s offices not honoring ICE detainers end up releasing people before ICE can take custody. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref> =====
* Local authorities dispute the federal characterization, saying reports about failing to notify ICE or failing to cooperate are inaccurate, and that they do notify ICE when required — while maintaining they do not detain solely on detainers. FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul<ref>{{cite web|title=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|url=https://www.fox9.com/news/hennepin-co-sheriff-says-ice-report-inaccurate-demands-apology|publisher=FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul|access-date=2026-01-18}}</ref>

===== - Local officials claim they do notify ICE when legally possible but do not ''hold'' individuals simply based on ICE administrative detainers. =====
* They maintain compliance with the law by either transferring to ICE at the scheduled release or requiring judicial authorization; they reject the idea that they enforce civil immigration detainers outside those bounds.

If you want, I can also summarize how this legal framework compares with other U.S. “sanctuary city” practices.

=== User: So they say they do NOT hold them for immigration authorities. ===
So they say they do NOT hold them for immigration authorities.

=== Assistant: Yes. ===
Yes. That is correct.

Local authorities in Minneapolis / Hennepin County explicitly state that they do ''not'' hold people for immigration authorities when the only basis is a civil ICE detainer.

More precisely:
* They say they will not extend detention or keep someone in jail solely for ICE.
* They characterize ICE detainers as non-binding requests, not legal orders.
* They say they will only hold or transfer someone to ICE if ICE presents a judicial warrant or other lawful authority.
* Otherwise, the person is released when they are entitled to release under state law, even if ICE wants custody.

Local officials also stress a distinction they consider important:
* Not holding for ICE ≠ never communicating with ICE
* They say they may notify ICE of release times when legally permissible, but they will not detain for ICE.

So your summary statement is accurate:

: 

That position is the core of the ongoing dispute with DHS, which argues that this practice results in removability-ordered individuals being released before ICE can take custody.

=== User: So 100% or close to it people with deportation orders are released back into the community once they have made bail or … ===
So 100% (or close to it) people with deportation orders are released back into the community once they have made bail or served their sentence?

=== Assistant: Short answer: No — not literally 100%, but close to it from the jail’s perspective under current Hennepin County policy. ===
Short answer: No — not literally 100%, but close to it ''from the jail’s perspective'' under current Hennepin County policy.

Here’s the precise way to think about it.

===== What the jail does =====

Hennepin County says it does not hold people for ICE on civil immigration grounds. So:
* If someone posts bail, completes their sentence, or is otherwise legally entitled to release
* And ICE has only a civil deportation order / detainer (no criminal warrant, no judge-signed warrant)

👉 The jail releases them.

From the jail’s standpoint, that means nearly everyone with a deportation order is released rather than held for ICE.

===== Why it is not truly “100%” =====

There are important exceptions:
# Judicial warrants - If ICE presents a judge-signed warrant or other lawful authority, the jail can transfer custody. - Those cases exist, but they are a minority.
# ICE pickup outside jail custody - ICE may be waiting outside the jail and arrest the person immediately after release. - In those cases, the person is not released into the community in any meaningful sense, even though the jail technically released them.
# Other holds - Some individuals may remain detained for non-immigration reasons (new charges, probation holds, etc.).

===== So what is the accurate framing? =====

A careful, defensible statement would be:

: Under Hennepin County policy, nearly all people with deportation orders are released from jail once their criminal custody ends, unless ICE has a judicial warrant or takes custody independently at the moment of release.

Or more bluntly:
* The jail almost never holds them for ICE
* Release is the default
* ICE enforcement is shifted outside the jail, not eliminated

===== Why this distinction matters =====

This is exactly why federal officials say people are being “released into the community,” while local officials respond:

: “We released them because the law required us to — ICE was free to arrest them on its own authority.”

Both statements can be true at the same time, depending on perspective.

If you want, I can help you:
* Quantify how rare judicial ICE warrants are relative to detainers, or
* Compare Minneapolis to jurisdictions that do honor detainers, or
* Tighten this into a single sentence suitable for debate or writing.

=== User: But if ice picks them up outside the jail, it is still true that they did not hold them for ice so those people belong … ===
But if ice picks them up outside the jail, it is still true that they did not hold them for ice so those people belong in the "close to 100%" that are released.

=== Assistant: Yes — your reasoning is correct. ===
Yes — your reasoning is correct.

If ICE arrests someone outside the jail, that does not change the jail’s action or policy. From the jail’s perspective:
* The person was released
* The jail did not hold them for ICE
* The jail did not transfer custody to ICE

So those people do belong in the “close to 100% released” category when the question is:

: Do local authorities hold people for immigration authorities?

They do not.

===== The key distinction =====
* Custody decision (jail): Release at end of criminal authority
* Enforcement decision (ICE): Separate, post-release arrest

Even if ICE is waiting at the door, the jail still:
* Ends custody
* Opens the gate
* Releases the person

Legally and factually, that is a release, not a hold or transfer.

===== Clean, precise conclusion =====

A precise statement that would hold up under scrutiny is:

: Hennepin County releases virtually all individuals with deportation orders once their criminal custody ends; any subsequent ICE arrest occurs independently and does not involve the jail holding the person for immigration purposes.

So yes — “close to 100% are released” is accurate, as long as we are talking about jail behavior, not what happens afterward.

If you want, I can also help you phrase this in a way that anticipates and neutralizes the most common counterarguments.

== References ==
<references />


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